- Bristol Rovers have won four of their last five League Two matches, but failed to win either of their last two home games against Fleetwood Town.
- Bristol Rovers have won their last two home games, both to nil.
- Bristol Rovers have allowed 27 goals in 20 League Two home matches this season.
Two teams going in the right direction
Bristol Rovers currently occupy 16th spot in League Two on 46 points from 40 games, while Fleetwood Town sit 13th on 55 points from the same amount of matches. Both teams are in much improved form, however, and both managers have recently put in place a structure that appears to suit their personnel best.
Rovers boss Steve Evans has enjoyed a rapid impact since taking over in mid-December and his 4-3-3 system has brought an immediate improvement in discipline and tempo to the Pirates, who are now pressing in unison from the first whistle in the middle third and creating more chances with their direct and purposeful wide attacking play.
Fabrizio Cavegn has scored 11 goals in 39 League Two appearances this term and has been the focal point of much of Rovers’ best attacking play since Evans came in. Mark Helm is Fleetwood’s danger man, scoring eight goals in 40 League Two outings and three of Fleetwood’s last four.
Rovers the right bet this Friday
Fleetwood boss Matt Lawlor has kept the pragmatic, counter-attacking style that made the club tough to beat previously, but with a much greater focus on protecting their midfield spine and maintaining a compact, patient buildup. The Town are certainly solid, but Evans has brought more clarity to the home team, who could test the discipline of the visitors’ compact set-up with their new proactive structure.
The recent head-to-head record is split between the two clubs, with Fleetwood claiming a 2-1 home win in League Two seven months ago and each side taking a win from the two meetings prior to that. Fleetwood have failed to win either of their last two away trips, however, while Rovers have won three in a row and are the clear favourites to win this Friday at 6/5.
Chance for a high-scoring game
With Fleetwood averaging just 0.95 goals per game away from home in League Two this term, we shouldn’t expect too much joy for the visitors against a Rovers side that have conceded 27 goals in 20 home matches. Over 2.5 goals is priced at 17/20, however, which seems too short for what should be an open contest between two teams full of momentum.
Our belief in one of these teams holding a clean sheet leads us towards Both teams to score - No at 21/20, but we are siding with the Pirates to take the win here given the momentum they have and the clarity in the way Evans has set them up to play.
