- Recent form: Bristol Rovers have won four of their last five League Two matches, including each of their last three.
- Away form: Fleetwood Town are winless in their last two away games (D1, L1).
- Away scoring: Fleetwood Town average just 0.95 goals per away game in League Two.
Rovers’ momentum has them priced up for the win
The Gas are favorites for this Friday’s encounter and are rightly priced up at 2.2 to beat Matt Lawlor’s men, who they have failed to beat in either of their two previous attempts at home in League Two. Bristol Rovers’ recent form and momentum would be the primary reason for the hosts being favorites, although the structure and clear identity Steve Evans has imbued in the team since taking charge in mid-December should also be a factor.
Tactical identity:
The former Leyton Orient boss has always been an interesting tactical coach in the EFL and he appears to have brought the right mix of discipline and organization to Bristol Rovers in a 4-3-3 system. They play at a higher tempo than most teams in the division with a clear midfield pressing game and they always look for direct, wide attacks.
Fabrizio Cavegn (11 goals in 39 League Two appearances this season) is usually at the focal point of their best moves and their attack appears to have found its rhythm again.
Pragmatic Cod Army can be tough to unlock
Fleetwood Town are a classic example of a pragmatic side that have found a way to get results in this league and they are no different under Lawlor, who took over in late January. He has kept the focus on solidity and compactness, they are still patient in possession and they can be devastating when they release their runners from deep.
Key threats and away record:
Mark Helm is Fleetwood’s danger man with eight goals in 40 League Two games this season. The fact that three of their last four goals have been scored by Helm means they will focus around him.
Fleetwood Town have won six, drawn six and lost eight of their 20 League Two away matches this term and a lack of away goals has undoubtedly hurt them at times.
Fleetwood’s counter-attacking approach may be tough to execute
Bristol Rovers are 16th in League Two with 46 points from 40 games, Fleetwood are 13th with 55 points. The Gas are a better bet here on recent form and the fact Evans seems to have given them a clear identity that is hard to counter.
Predictions:
Bristol Rovers have conceded 27 goals in 20 home League Two encounters this campaign, so the visitors’ compactness should be tested by the hosts’ midfield and wingers.
- Both teams to score - No is our main selection as we cannot see Fleetwood Town scoring against a home side that has won back-to-back games to nil.
- But the clash of Evans’ proactive system and Lawlor’s counter-attacking mindset could lead to an open game and the 1.85 odds on over 2.5 goals look too good to ignore.
