- Burton Albion have won the last two head-to-head meetings with AFC Wimbledon, including a 1-0 victory on home soil in League One 2025/2026
- Burton have drawn their only home game in League One 2026/2027 so far, scoring just 1 goal
- AFC Wimbledon are still waiting for their first away win in League One 2026/2027, losing the only game they have played on the road and failing to score
Brewers back in the thick of things
Burton Albion are having a decent start to the League One 2026/2027 campaign, sitting in 11th place after three games with four points on the board. Gary Bowyer's team are coming off a morale-boosting 2-1 away win at Leicester City, but that was followed by a 2-1 loss away to Notts County earlier today.
A quick glance at the Brewers' recent form will tell you that this is not a team capable of sustaining any kind of momentum, having won two, drawn one and lost two of their last five games.
AFC Wimbledon are having a much tougher time of it so far in the new league and sit 23rd in the table with just one point from two games. Johnnie Jackson's men held Reading to a goalless draw at home in the opening round of League One 2026/2027, before getting clipped 3-0 away to Fulham in the EFL Cup 2026/2027 last time out.
Wimbledon’s recent road woes could go against them
Burton are the slight favourites at 97/100, with the Dons a touch of a big price at 11/4 and the draw no more than a side bet at 12/5. Jackson's side are in far worse shape than Bowyer's, having won only one, drawn one and lost three of their last five, and they have a terrible record in away games against Burton.
Bowyer is a pretty pragmatic manager, who has been at the club since December 2024. He has fashioned a compact side with a lot of width from the wing-backs and a direct, vertical game plan. The 3-4-2-1 style should suit Finn Delap's strengths and he remains the main outlet for the Brewers, with one goal in three appearances in League One 2026/2027.
Wimbledon are a much more possession-based side and Jackson likes to keep things compact in midfield and disciplined in transition, which makes them susceptible to counter-attacks and second-ball scraps. The Dons' best player, Aron Sasu, is carrying the attacking burden on his own as he has netted two of the team's three goals over the past five.
A close, cagey clash in the making
The odds suggest the Brewers will have a look about them, but that isn't our view. Burton have the advantage in the head-to-head, particularly with two recent wins over Wimbledon, and we believe they will nick this one. However, the odds are too short to take the hosts with confidence and the teams' current attacking numbers are low, so we're expecting a cagey match.
Under 2.5 goals at 83/100 is on the edge of our model and both teams to score - No at 93/100 is our selection. Wimbledon will try to keep the tempo down and build from the back, but Burton's tempo will make this a scrappy game and, if anything, the away side's narrowness out wide could make this a low-scoring match.
