- Charlton have won two of their last five matches (D1, L2) but they beat Colchester United 2-0 in an away game.
- Derby County have won four of their last ten across all competitions (D1, L5) and have scored 10 goals in their six away games this term.
- The hosts are favourites at 79/50, but Derby are not far behind at 41/25 with the draw at 23/10.
Charlton favourites at The Valley
Charlton Athletic are slight favourites at home to Derby County on Saturday afternoon and there is plenty to like about that, although the Rams could certainly nick this game if they win the transition battle.
John Eustace has been in charge of Derby County since 13 February 2025 and has settled on a pragmatic approach which involves setting up with a compact shape out of possession and then trying to make the most of the space they create in transition. It's a smart approach and his side have been good on the road in all competitions this season, winning three, drawing one and losing two of their six.
The Rams have struggled a bit of late however, with a run of one win, one draw and three defeats in their last five and they enter this clash on the back of a 1-0 defeat at Burton Albion and 1-1 draw at Rotherham United.
Style clash should make for a cagey encounter
Nathan Jones has a scenario-based approach to the game, in that he likes his Charlton Athletic team to be compact and difficult to break down out of possession. They press in specific areas of the field and they've got a solid shape, which is why set-piece and counter-punch moments are so important to their play. They've struggled in their own half this season and have won one of their last three home games, but have conceded just five goals at an average of 1.67 per game.
Miles Leaburn, who has scored two of Charlton's three goals in the last five, is their danger man and they have a real focal point up top, which has given them a cutting edge in recent weeks. Charlton have won three, drawn three and lost four of their last 10 across all competitions, so it's a mixed bag of results that has seen them lack momentum for much of the season. They haven't won either of their last two home games against Derby, so the visitors will have a slight psychological edge on Saturday.
Under 2.5 goals the smart punt
Derby County beat Charlton 2-1 on the road in the Championship 2025/2026 last time out and the overall head-to-head is locked at 1-1-1 in their last three meetings. This should be a scrappy affair because of the style clash, with Derby trying to break Charlton down and the hosts looking to counter and cause problems at set-piece situations. The odds reflect a very tight game, which is what we're likely to get, but Under 2.5 goals at 4/5 is a sharper bet than a shootout.
