- Derby are the dominant force in this fixture with 24 wins from 38 meetings, seven defeats and seven draws, winning three of the last five competitive head-to-head matches.
- Derby finished 2025-26 in the healthy mid-to-upper-table groove and have been sharp and competitive in pre-season friendlies.
- Lincoln are 2025-26 League One champions and finished that season on a high with a 2-0 win at Port Vale, a 4-3 win over Wycombe and a 2-0 away win at Doncaster in all competitions.
Cup ties are rarely one-way traffic
There is enough about this fixture to suggest that Derby County will win on Saturday but the odds on the Rams are too short for a home win in the EFL Cup 2026-2027.
Lincoln City are a good bet in the draw no bet market at 12/5 and the draw itself comes in at 11/4, but we prefer the visitors to keep this cup tie competitive for as long as possible in what should be a close contest.
Derby are 97/100 favourites here and that's fair enough given the clubs' respective places in the football pyramid, but the Rams are just as likely to get caught out on a counter-attack as the Imps are to fall to a flying Derby breakaway.
Imps have a strong counterpunch
Lincoln, coming into this as 2025-26 League One champions, have all the momentum and belief required to make the step up to the Championship. John Eustace's Derby side play compact, pragmatic football with a high press and quick, vertical outlets for the ball.
Bobby Clark gives Eustace's team a nice bit of creativity between the lines, while Joe Ward can deliver from wide and provides a bit of bite when Derby look to counter-attack. Carlton Morris is a penalty-box threat who can turn one good transition into a decisive smash-and-grab, but Lincoln have a counterpunch of their own.
Jack Moylan is the Imps' creative force and a goal threat from midfield, while Reeco Hackett brings pace and directness out wide. Rob Street is a lively playmaker in the hole and George Wickens a reliable last line in a team that plays in a compact block, builds up in a measured way and strikes with pace on the break.
Imps can make Derby work for it
Lincoln can certainly make Derby fight for it on Saturday and it's our belief that the more likely outcome is an ugly home win, not a free-flowing shootout that never looks in doubt. Under 2.5 goals at 11/10 seems to best fit the tactical shape of this tie, which should descend into a game of chess at some stage with both teams capable of locking the opposition in when they want to.
Derby have dominated this head-to-head matchup, but Lincoln are a decent bet to at least make a game of it at Pride Park. Derby won 3-1 when Lincoln visited Pride Park in December 2023 and the game was goalless when they last met at the same venue in January 2024, so the visitors can certainly keep it close.
