- Arsenal are in great form, scoring at least twice in each of their last five games across all competitions.
- Chelsea have shown mixed form in their last five matches across all competitions, losing 3-1 to Arsenal and drawing 1-1 with the London City Lionesses in the WSL.
- Arsenal are unbeaten in their last three meetings with Chelsea, winning two and drawing one.
Chelsea seek to overcome aggregate deficit
Arsenal’s 3-1 aggregate lead over Chelsea after a clinical performance at the Emirates last week means the Gunners are favourites to reach the 2025-2026 UEFA Women’s Champions League semi-finals against the Blues, although Sonia Bompastor’s side have the firepower to do something special and get back into the game.
The Gunners are red-hot favourites to progress to the next stage of the competition, but the bookmakers are making Chelsea slight favourites to win on the night at 97/100, a bit short for our money considering the aggregate gap and the superior form Arsenal have shown in the last month. Arsenal, who have been in imperious form since Renée Slegers took charge, are available at 23/10, which is very enticing.
Arsenal sit second, a point clear of Chelsea, with 38 points from 17 games compared to the Blues’ 37 from 18. Arsenal have won their last five in all competitions, scoring at least two goals in each match, and they thrashed West Ham 5-0 on Sunday before beating Bristol City 3-0 in the FA Cup at the weekend. Chelsea have shown mixed form in their last five matches across all competitions, including a 1-3 loss to Arsenal, a 1-1 draw with London City Lionesses, and a 2-0 League Cup final win over Manchester United.
Stamford Bridge set to host a cracker
Chelsea will have to come out attacking from the off to get back into this tie, but that could allow space for Arsenal to counter-attack. This could be an end-to-end match with plenty of goals, as Sonia Bompastor has brought a direct, front-foot brand of football to Stamford Bridge since her arrival, although Chelsea are equally capable of keeping it tight and grinding out a result.
Bompastor has also brought some flexibility to Chelsea’s tactical blueprint, as they have been known to sit deep and get men behind the ball but can equally well play with width and numbers forward, with Lauren James and Sam Kerr as the focal points. James scored in both the League Cup final and the UWCL first leg, while Kerr is Chelsea’s most prolific goalscorer and is best utilized as a focal point for fast transitions.
Stina Blackstenius is Arsenal’s big-game striker, getting goals in big matches against Chelsea and in the 2025 UWCL final. Arsenal have added Alessia Russo and Olivia Smith to the frontline and Emily Fox brings defensive steel and an attacking threat from full-back, but the Swede remains their most trusted finisher.
Gunners can grind out a win at Stamford Bridge
Arsenal bring width, rotation in possession and an almost machine-like, process-driven style of football to the pitch. Slegers’ team press well, use the ball quickly and can isolate defenders or overload the final third with their smart positional play. Chelsea will have to push on from the start, so Arsenal should get chances on the break.
Over 2.5 goals is ridiculously low at 67/100, so we’re going for a draw or an away win for Arsenal at Stamford Bridge, which would be enough to send them through to the semi-finals. Chelsea have conceded three in the first leg and could be vulnerable again, but Johanna Rytting Kaneryd’s influence at the other end should keep them in it.
