- Estrela Amadora have won two of the last three head-to-heads, but Casa Pia Atletico won the most recent one.
- Estrela Amadora have scored seven goals in their last five home fixtures in all competitions.
- Casa Pia Atletico have conceded six goals in six away fixtures in all competitions.
Tricolores to maintain home edge
Estrela Amadora are 13/20 favourites against Casa Pia Atletico at the time of writing and that seems about right based on the form of the two sides coming into Saturday's Primeira Liga 2026-2027 clash at Estadio Jose Gomes.
Pepa has done a good job since taking over Estrela Amadora on 1 July 2026 and his Tricolores team come into this game on the back of some mixed form - two wins, one draw and two defeats from their last five matches.
The most recent pair of results saw them lose 0-1 away to FC Arouca in the Primeira Liga, followed by a 2-1 away win over Fazendense in the Taça de Portugal. So the response to the defeat was pretty rapid and Estrela Amadora are likely to be the more positive side on Saturday.
Ianis Stoica has been their spark, netting three of Estrela's five goals across the last five games, but all of them have been able to play their part in a team that is extremely versatile.
Gansos are inconsistent and difficult to trust
Pepa is very flexible in his use of systems, but they lean on vertical attacks, a mobile front three and aggressive pressing to force turnovers and spring quick transitions.
Filipe Coelho's side are very different beasts indeed in that they are built on structure and compactness. Coelho took over Casa Pia Atletico on 5 July 2026 and has done a decent job, but the Gansos are in mixed-to-poor form.
The visitors come into this clash on the back of two wins, a draw and three defeats from their last six and have taken two wins, a draw and seven defeats from their last 10 in all competitions.
The most recent three results have seen them lose 4-1 at home to FC Porto, win 2-1 away to Estoril Praia and then lose 0-1 at home to Santa Clara, so it is an inconsistent side. Casa Pia have conceded only six goals in their six away games in all competitions, which isn't a bad return, but they also look hard to trust in this spot.
Back the draw and Under 2.5 goals
Casa Pia have won their two of their last three visits to Estrela Amadora, so they do know how to spoil the party on their home soil. However, the odds on both teams are such that we are having to go with an Under 2.5 goals play in this one.
Estrela Amadora are not ruthless enough to take all three points even if they are the better side on the day, which is why we are favouring the Under 2.5 market at 83/100 and Both Teams To Score: No at 4/5.
