- Grimsby are the slight favourites at 21/25, Exeter are 59/20 and the draw is 53/20.
- Grimsby have 1 win in their last 5, while Exeter have not won in their last 5 matches.
Two well-drilled systems should keep it tight
The market has this one pretty much right, with the draw priced at 53/20 and both teams to score - Yes at 7/10 looking very fair prices.
This is a classic possession-versus-transition football match, with Matt Taylor's Exeter team trying to probe and penetrate the Grimsby Town set-up, and David Artell's side trying to counter-attack, exploiting space.
Grimsby Town are the stronger team, but they are not quite good enough to push Exeter aside, even at home at Blundell Park, England. And even if they were, this is the sort of fixture where three points are much more important than any home advantage or local bragging rights.
Exeter will be better than 59/20
Exeter have played 2 matches, losing 1-2 at home to Bradford City and then drawing 1-1 at home with Bristol City in Friendly Club Matches 2026 fixture.
Grimsby have played 3 matches, drawing 2-2 away at Salford in League Two 2025/2026 after extra-time and losing 1-2 at home to the same club. Last time out, Artell's men were well beaten at home in the EFL Cup 2026/2027 by Blackpool FC.
Exeter look a bit short for this one and the value lies with the hosts, but that doesn't mean it is going to be a walk in the park for the Mariners.
Grimsby just about have the edge
Grimsby's mixed run of results is 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats in their last 10 games across all competitions, which is just about good enough to edge the odds here. Exeter have managed 1 win, 5 draws and 4 defeats in their most recent 10, which reads more like grind than groove.
The visitors are still looking for their first away win in any competition in 2026, having played 5 matches on the road (2 draws and 3 losses), and we can't see that changing here, either.
The two main stars of the show here will be Grimsby's Jaze Kabia, who has 4 goals in 9 across the last 5 games, and Exeter's Reece Cole, who has scored 3 of the Grecian's 8 goals in the same period.
Two different types of player
Ilmari Niskanen has been Exeter's creative spark, providing 3 assists in the same 5 games, while Reece Staunton has been the delivery man for Grimsby, providing 3 assists in the same number of fixtures.
It is clear that Exeter are much more of a possession and control team, while Grimsby are more of a compact, pragmatic unit that is set up to stay solid and hit on the break.
Artell's 4-1-4-1/4-2-3-1 is a very structured and disciplined system, which is what makes them a tough nut to crack. Taylor's team will try to dominate the game, while Grimsby will be more interested in countering and staying compact.
The hosts should have enough about them to nick it, but we expect Exeter to make it close.
