- Villa form: Aston Villa have won three and lost two of their last five games.
- Forest form: Nottingham Forest have won two and drawn two of their last five, including a 3-0 win at Tottenham.
- Forest home record: Forest have only won three of 15 home games in the Premier League (D5, L7).
Villans should edge out Forest in a cagey matchup
Match overview
Aston Villa should have enough class to edge out Nottingham Forest in what is likely to be a cagey affair at the City Ground on Sunday. Villa are fourth in the 2025-2026 Premier League table with 54 points from 31 games and Forest are 16th with 32 points from as many games.
Aston Villa won the reverse fixture 3-1 at home in the Premier League three months ago but Forest have stopped the Villans from winning on their two previous visits to the City Ground. The home side can certainly cause an upset here, especially as Villa have won one and lost one of their last two on the road.
Tactical styles
The Villans are a possession-based, high-pressing team with a clear identity that Unai Emery has instilled since taking charge in November 2022. They will try to dominate the ball and force opponents into errors.
Forest are a much more pragmatic side who set up to be solid in structure, keep the tempo low and pick their moments to press. Vitor Pereira has done this since taking charge in February 2026 and the result is a team that can be tough to break down and dangerous in transition.
Villa’s quality should tell in low-scoring game
The visitors are 2.6 to take all three points on Sunday and we’re leaning towards the away side to make that selection our main bet.
But the game itself should be tight as Villa have no need to go all out for the win and Forest are adept at keeping things tight and frustrating opponents. Villa have won three of the last five meetings between the clubs in all competitions with Forest winning the other two.
The correct score prediction here is for a 1-0 away win, although it could easily go the other way. We’re avoiding the draw because Villa’s attacking quality should eventually tell in this matchup, even if Forest are solid.
- Forest have failed to win their last two home games, drawing once and losing once, while Villa’s last three games have seen them win 2-0 against OSC Lille in the Europa League and West Ham in the league before losing 1-2 to Elche in a recent friendly.
- Forest concede 1.27 goals per home league game and Villa average 1.27 goals scored per away game, so under 2.5 goals looks a strong play at 1.85.
- With neither team in the habit of conceding a lot of goals, both teams to score - No looks a solid play at 2.1, but Villa’s superior quality should ensure at least one team does not score.
Morgan and Ollie to play key roles
Morgan Gibbs-White is the leading scorer in the Premier League for Forest with nine goals in 31 appearances, so he looks a good anytime goal scorer bet. Villa’s Ollie Watkins is top scorer for them in the league with nine in 30 and he is crucial to their attacking output, so he’s worth a bet in the same market.
