- Rayo Vallecano lead Strasbourg 1 - 0 on aggregate after their first-leg home win
- Alemão, Isi Palazón and Florian Lejeune are key players in Rayo’s possession-based, width-heavy strategy
- Strasbourg have the energy and pressing intensity to get forward and create more of an open game
Rayo’s set-piece prowess to show
Rayo Vallecano’s first-ever competitive clash with Strasbourg has produced a close and competitive tie, with Rayo taking a 1-0 aggregate advantage into Thursday’s second leg. Iñigo Pérez’s team have defied expectations and taken Vallecas by storm with their deep European run while maintaining a mid-table LaLiga position.
Their 1-0 first-leg victory was a typical display of Rayo’s style in Europe this season in which they have been more organised and disciplined than the teams they have faced. A compact team with a compact defence that can change the tempo of the game at will, they dominate possession and are always a threat on set pieces - particularly after half-time.
Isi Palazón is the creative heartbeat of Rayo’s attack and the supplier of the corner that led to Alemão’s winner in the first-leg, while Alemão’s aerial prowess makes him a threat at all set-piece situations. Batalla is another stopper with a good head on him and Rayo’s defensive unit around Florian Lejeune have remained compact and produced a series of tight wins against their opponents in the Conference League.
Rayo can be caught out at the back
Gary O’Neil has a young, energetic side that can really push the pace of the game and put Rayo under pressure like few of Rayo's other opponents this season have done. Strasbourg are a team that likes to build up from the back and use their whole field to rotate players and overload areas, especially with Julio Enciso operating as a false nine.
Joaquín Panichelli is another versatile forward who can play as a number 10 or wide, while Emmanuel Emegha is a workhorse who can do a bit of everything. They have both combined with Enciso to create some crucial goals and assists in the knockout stages to get them to this semi-final, but Rayo’s compactness and set-piece threat are likely to hold them at bay here.
Strasbourg’s form has been streaky, mixing a 3-2 win over Lorient with defeats to Toulouse, Nice and Rennes, while they also lost the first-leg in Spain. Young keeper Mike Penders kept them in the tie, but Rayo come into the match unbeaten in three, having beaten Getafe 2-0, Strasbourg 1-0 and then come from behind to salvage a 3-3 draw with Real Sociedad.
Home advantage may not be enough
Strasbourg are 8th in Ligue 1 with 46 points from 30 games, which is enough to ensure a solid season domestically while they push for a historic European final in Leipzig. But they need to win this match to have a chance and Rayo will be as well dug in as any side that they have come up against this year, making a home win at 19/20 look too short with the visitors at 297/100 and the draw at 277/100.
The French side are the slight favourites because of home advantage, but it is Rayo that hold the 1-0 aggregate advantage that could be enough for them to squeeze through. A single goal or a set-piece could decide this tie, so the market is right in making Strasbourg the narrow favourites to win the match.
The ‘BTTS - Yes’ market is at 37/50, which seems fair as Rayo are more of a goal threat than any of their previous opponents in the Conference League while Strasbourg’s attacking bite can be seen in their three-goal haul against Lorient and in other recent three-goal games. However, Rayo’s aggregate lead means they can keep it tight at the top end and there may be a goal in this game for the visitors on the break or from a set-piece situation.
Patchy showers and cool temperatures at Stade de la Meinau could favour a more physical contest with set-pieces likely to feature more than normal in this tactical chess match. Racing Club will come on strong to try and get the goal they need to send the tie into extra time - which they would do if they win 1-0 in 90 minutes because of the abolition of the away-goals rule.
