- Freiburg have won three and lost only one of their four home games in the Bundesliga 2026/2027.
- Union have lost two of their three away matches in the Bundesliga 2026/2027, conceding 4.00 goals and scoring just 0.33 per game.
- Freiburg have won their last three games in all competitions with a 1-2 away win at FC Augsburg and a 0-1 away win at Trabzonspor, but have not beaten Union Berlin in their last two home meetings.
Goals and pressure on Union
Freiburg are currently third in the Bundesliga 2026/2027 standings with 16 points from eight games and are in the Champions League race. However, they failed to beat 1. FC Union Berlin in their last two meetings here and this won't be an easy matchup for Christian Streich's side, even though the visitors are 16th in the table with seven points from their opening eight games.
Union will have to work hard to move clear of the drop zone and they can be a little too easy to read at the moment, either playing at a steady tempo or at full pelt. Mauro Lustrinelli's men defend compactly, have a good team structure and press well when they have to, but they are often caught when trying to play on the break or from set pieces.
They travel to Europa-Park Stadion in good spirits as their recent form has produced one win, three draws and one defeat, but their away results in the Bundesliga 2026/2027 are less impressive with one draw and two defeats from three trips.
Freiburg to turn the screw
Freiburg have been the more impressive of the two teams this season and Julian Schuster's men have been almost irresistible at home, where they have won three and lost one of their Bundesliga 2026/2027 assignments. Die Breisgauer failed to win either of their last two at home to Union Berlin, so this isn't a sure thing.
But Freiburg's away results have been less impressive than at Europa-Park, where they are the dominant team, so we will side with Die Breisgauer to get it done at the fifth time of asking. Streich's team have scored 12 goals in four Bundesliga 2026/2027 home games this season, so there is scope for them to turn the screw against an opponent that has conceded an average of 4.00 goals per game on their travels.
Over 2.5 goals is our main selection and a goal fest in which both teams score feels like the most natural play, given how open this game could be with Freiburg controlling the play and Union looking to nick a goal on the counter or from a set-piece. Yuito Suzuki, with four goals in his last four Bundesliga 2026/2027 games, has been the catalyst for Freiburg's success, while Tim Skarke has been Union's sharpest finisher with two goals in his four Bundesliga 2026/2027 appearances.
The head-to-head also has to be respected as Union have won three of their last five meetings with Freiburg, two of which ended all square. But the market makes Freiburg the more attractive of the sides at 51/100 and we will take that as the odds-on price. Janik Haberer has also been a good player for Union with two of his side's four goals coming in their last five.
