- Sturm Graz have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5 and are on a 3-game winning run.
- Hearts of Midlothian have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5.
- Sturm have won 5, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 8 competitive home games.
Sturm look for fast start
A fast start and plenty of pressure from wide areas should see SK Sturm Graz to their first leg advantage over Hearts of Midlothian when the Scottish side travel to Graz-Liebenau on Tuesday. Fabio Ingolitsch's side have been a revelation since the Austrian took charge on 1 January 2026, they play with tempo and purpose in a 4-3-3 or 4-2-3-1 base, creating wide overloads, hitting passes vertically and hunting second balls aggressively.
Sturm are the 5/4 favourites with the bookies for this UEFA Champions League qualification clash and that looks about right given they have scored 2.75 goals per game at home in all competitions this season while conceding 1.38. SK Sturm's last three results have been a 4-1 home win over SC Kalsdorf, a 5-1 home thrashing of Sanfrecce Hiroshima and a 1-0 win over Pogon Szczecin. But this will be a different proposition as the stakes are now all of a sudden very high, both in financial terms and in terms of time saved if either side makes it into the next round.
Wouter Vrancken, who became Hearts boss on 1 July 2026, is trying to establish an organised, attacking identity to his new team, but they will still attack and there is already a little more structure to his 4-2-3-1 or 4-3-3 side. They press in a controlled fashion and rotate the ball better than they did last season when they were a little more chaotic.
Hearts have enough to keep it close
Hearts will try to slow the pace here and keep things compact, but if they allow Sturm any space to run into they will be picked off. Hearts have averaged 1.50 goals away from home in all competitions, scoring nine in total, so they will get enough of a chance to grab one on the road.
Sturm are the stronger side on paper and have the more momentum to carry into the fixture, but Hearts are in decent form after a tough start to the season. The Edinburgh club have won 6, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 10 in all competitions and that gives them enough of a platform to keep this fixture closer than the odds suggest.
A double chance punt on Sturm or Draw is the most likely alternative market here, but there is a feeling that this could be a tight and tense affair that could go either way depending on which side wins the central midfield battle.
