- Southampton have won four of their four home games in the Championship.
- Bolton Wanderers have won one and lost two of their four away games in the Championship.
- Southampton have conceded 1.00 goals per game at home in the Championship this season.
Southampton can edge a close clash
Southampton are the runaway favourites for Saturday's Championship match against Bolton Wanderers at St. Mary's, and their odds of 23/50 for the three points is about right for this one, but not because they are much better than their visitors.
The Saints sit 16th in the table with ten points from eight games, while Bolton are 17th with the same total and have played one game more. Both sides have been inconsistent in the early season, but the home record of the hosts makes it hard to ignore the hosts.
The Trotters have won, drawn and lost on the road, so that won't get them a return on Saturday, but the form book is not the place to look for the value in this clash, rather it lies in the way these two teams are set up.
Trotters will scrap for a goal
The visitors are a very well drilled team who shape up well in a 4-2-3-1 system under Steven Schumacher. They are a disciplined defensive block that will hold their shape and look to hit teams on the break.
They have the bite to beat Cardiff City 1-0 and Norwich City 4-3 in the Championship this term, but they were also undone by Stoke City 2-1 last time out. They look like a team that will come to play at St. Mary's and get some joy on the counter.
Southampton have a different style of play from the Trotters, but are more compact and more of a threat from set pieces. Tonda Eckert's side play a compact game and do most of their damage on the transition, so this could turn on a midfield chess match.
Saints can win and both teams to score
Backing Southampton to win and both teams to find the net looks a sharp angle for this clash as the hosts do not concede many goals at home, but still average 3.75 total goals in their four matches at their home stadium. The 1.00 goals they have conceded per home game suggests they should be able to keep the game close enough to win, which they should be capable of doing given their 100% record at their own stadium this term.
Bolton Wanderers have hit 1.50 goals per away game in the Championship and will fancy their chances of grabbing a goal against this Southampton side, but the fact the home side have won four of four on their own turf suggests the best bet is for Southampton to edge it.
