- Hamburger SV have won their last two matches.
- VfB Stuttgart have won three of the last four head-to-head games (D0, L1).
- HSV have scored 1.5 goals per game on average against Stuttgart in their last four home head-to-head clashes.
Hamburg have momentum
Hamburger SV are coming into this with some momentum after back-to-back wins that have put them in a position to make a strong push for points in the Bundesliga 2026/2027. Die Rothosen beat 1. FC Köln 2-1 in the Bundesliga and then followed that up with a 2-0 friendly win over FC Copenhagen.
So HSV will come into this as the form favourites, but there are some doubts about how sustainable their good run will be against a good side like Stuttgart. The hosts are 16th in the Bundesliga 2026/2027 on three points from four games and they can't afford to drop any points this early in the season.
Die Rothosen have won one and lost one of their two home Bundesliga 2026/2027 fixtures and, while the numbers suggest they've improved, averaging 1.00 goals scored and 3.00 goals conceded is a poor return. However, they are getting better and Albert Groenbaek is the team's most creative influence with two Bundesliga assists from four matches, while Nicolas Capaldo is their highest scorer with one goal in four games.
Stuttgart are a good bet
The bookmakers have Stuttgart as slight favourites for this clash at 1.9, although HSV are a very big odds to win at 4.09 and the draw is priced the same. The visitors are 15th on three points from their first four matches, so this clash with their fellow basement dwellers will be a tense fixture.
Stuttgart have three wins and two defeats from their last five games, a run that includes a 0-1 defeat to Borussia Dortmund in the Bundesliga and a 5-0 win over Greuther Furth in a friendly. They have lost their only away game so far, so their away form looks slightly shaky.
Sebastian Hoeness has been in charge of VfB Stuttgart since April 2023 and has made them into a pressing, vertical and fast-transitioning side. Merlin Polzin, who has been in the Hamburg manager's role since November 2024, has built a back three that is compact and well-organised, but then they attempt to control the game.
Stuttgart should get the win
This looks like a close match on paper, but Stuttgart have had Hamburg's number in recent times. Stuttgart's pressing and fast transitions should drag this into a fast-paced tactical battle if they can get onto the ball early.
Stuttgart will most likely win and over 2.5 goals at 1.34 does fit their high-tempo game as much as both teams to score at 1.35. Ermedin Demirovic has scored four of Stuttgart's last 13 goals across their last 5 matches, so he looks the best play for a goal. Josha Vagnoman has two Bundesliga goals in four appearances and is timing his runs from wing-back nicely at the moment.
