- Hapoel Beer-Sheva have won 1 and lost 4 of their last 5 games, so they are in poor form.
- Red Star have won 4 in a row, including a 4-0 away win over Larne and a 5-0 home win in UEFA Champions League Qualification 2026.
- Hapoel Beer-Sheva have conceded 3.00 goals per-game at home in all competitions across their last 4 matches.
Stale draw is a probable outcome
The odds suggest that Red Star are the favourites at 2.37, but Hapoel are 2.9 and the draw is 3.55 here, which means that the market looks confused and that the value could lie in a stalemate.
Hapoel's run of 5 wins, 1 draw and 4 defeats across their last 10 in all competitions is not a great run for a side in UEFA Champions League qualification, but a response to the 2-1 away defeat to Vikingur Reykjavik in the first leg of this series with a 2-0 home victory earlier today shows that Ran Kozuch's side have some fight to them. Kozuch has this Hapoel side set up to be a flexible team that gets results, swapping between 4-3-3 and 4-2-3-1 setups and looking for transition opportunities.
FK Red Star have won 6, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 10 in all competitions, a slightly better form run than Hapoel's. Dejan Stanković's team plays a more intense game than Hapoel, suffocating teams with wave after wave of pressing, sitting compact at the back and looking to play a direct style of ball.
Goals shouldn’t flow in the desert
Amir Ganah has scored 1 goal in 2 appearances in UEFA Champions League Qualification 2026, so he remains Hapoel's biggest scoring threat so far. Bruno Duarte is Red Star's early knockout specialist with 2 goals in 1 appearance in this series so far, and the forward possesses the ability to finish through the middle with his right foot.
Red Star's recent 4-0 victory at Larne showed that their 4-3-3 and 4-2-3-1 setups are geared towards getting the ball forward and dominant in the air, as well as overloading the wide areas. Hapoel will try to play on the counter, and Red Star will look to starve them of space. Hapoel's recent home numbers are shaky with 1 win and 3 defeats from their last 4 home games in all competitions, while Red Star's 2 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat from 4 on the road across all
competitions isn't great, but they have scored 7 goals on their travels.
We think that Red Star are the more likely winner in this clash given their current form run, but Hapoel's home edge and counter-attacking threat could keep this one tight. As a result, we're going to take the odds
of Under 2.5 goals at 1.78 and Both Teams To Score - No at 1.9 for this clash.
