- Larne have won seven of their last ten matches across all competitions. Red Star have won five, drawn two, and lost three of their last ten across all competitions (W5, D2, L3). Larne have four wins and one defeat in their last five at home in all competitions.
A close run thing in Northern Ireland
Serbia's Red Star Belgrade are 1.14 favourites to beat Larne in their UEFA Champions League qualification tie on Tuesday. The draw is a distant second at 7.1, while Northern Ireland side Larne are the underdogs at Inver Park. We're expecting this to be a tight, cagey affair, so the markets we like are Both Teams to Score - No at 1.5 and Under 2.5 Goals at 2.62.
Red Star boss Dejan Stankovic sets up his team in either a 4-2-3-1 or a 4-1-4-1 formation and likes to control the ball, press and create overloads in the wide areas and half-spaces. Stankovic's Red Star are the class on paper, but with just one win, two draws and one defeat from their last four away games in all competitions (W1, D2, L1), this is a live underdog chance for Larne.
Larne boss Gary Haveron has his men well-drilled in a 3-4-1-2 where the wing-backs push forward and they pack the middle in a narrow shape designed to stay compact and hit on the break. They have enough quality to make Red Star's life difficult on Tuesday and they know how to grind out the results they need in knockout football, having beaten SP Tre Fiori 1-0 in San Marino and 2-1 at home in the previous round of qualification.
Larne’s form has picked up at the right time
Larne are on a three-game winning streak and have taken four wins and a draw from their last five in all competitions (W4, D1), so they're in sharp rhythm at exactly the right moment. Red Star's last three games have been a 1-2 home Super Liga defeat to OFK Belgrade in the championship group, a 1-3 friendly defeat to Zenit and a 5-0 league win over Mačva Šabac, so their form line is a little deceptive.
A home average of 3.00 goals scored and 1.20 goals conceded for Larne in all competitions suggests they can be good enough to win this without going wild, while Red Star have averaged 1.25 goals per game on the road in all competitions, scoring just five away goals in total.
Matthew Lusty has been Larne's hot shot with five of their last 13 goals in all competitions coming from his boot during the last five games. Dan Bent has that knack of being in the right place at the right time in UEFA Champions League qualification, however, with one goal in two games.
Red Star will try to control and Larne will try to contain
It's a clash of styles here and we envisage it being a classic control-versus-containment chess match where Red Star will attempt to squeeze the game and Larne will absorb, reset and attack on the counter. The visitors will get more of the ball, but Larne could make this difficult, so look for a close and careful game on the pitch with a slight edge towards the visitors.
