- Hapoel Beer-Sheva have won one and lost four of their last five matches.
- Red Star have won two, drawn one and lost one of their four away matches across all competitions.
Red Star the favourites after their latest run of form
Red Star are a red-hot favourite after four straight wins with two of those coming in UEFA Champions League Qualification 2026. Dejan Stanković's men have shown no fear in their away matches during this sequence, blitzing Larne 4-0 in Northern Ireland before hammering 5-0 in Belgrade to secure the first-leg advantage. Red Star will now look to finish off their task in Israel as they face an inconsistent Hapoel Beer-Sheva team on Tuesday. The hosts won 2-0 against Vikingur Reykjavik in UEFA Champions League Qualification 2026 earlier today to avenge a 2-1 defeat to the Icelandic team last week, but that result means they have won five, drawn one and lost four of their last ten across all competitions - a decent but wobbly record for a side in the UEFA Champions League qualification hunt. Red Star should therefore rightly be favourites for this game at 137/100, ahead of Hapoel Beer-Sheva at 19/10 and 51/20 for the draw. Stanković's side play a bold and intense style of play, defending compactly, pressing in waves and looking to transition quickly. Both their 4-3-3 and 4-2-3-1 systems have been designed to get the ball forward quickly, dominate the aerial duel, overload the wide areas and exploit the channels with quick runners.
Hosts have the transition threat
Hapoel have the same basic structures but Ran Kozuch's side will want to play on the break to their own advantage. Amir Ganah has been their main man in UEFA Champions League Qualification 2026 with one goal in two games, but he's not the only threat up top. Kozuch has fashioned a flexible team that will play the results-first style as shown in their response to the 2-1 defeat in Reykjavik. However, Hapoel have won just one and lost three of their previous four home games across all competitions and are conceding 3.00 goals per game on average at home.
We believe that Red Star are worthy favourites here, but the value must be found elsewhere. The Serbs have been flying lately, but their average away goals per game in their four away matches is a relatively modest 1.75 and the home edge Hapoel will have could keep this a cagey contest. Hapoel's record of one win and four losses in five games is also concerning, so we'll back Under 2.5 goals at 39/50 and Both Teams To Score - No at 9/10.
Bruno Duarte has been Red Star's early knockout weapon with two goals in one game so far in UEFA Champions League Qualification 2026, but he can be a real threat to finish through the middle, while his ability to press and run the channels is also a big plus.
