- Larne have won 7 of their last 10 in all competitions, including 4 wins and drawing 1 of their last 5, so they're playing their best football at the right time.
- FK Red Star Belgrade have won 5, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 10 in all competitions, so they're not on an invincible stretch.
- Larne have won 4 and lost 1 of their last 5 home matches in all competitions, so they're not an easy beat in Northern Ireland.
This should be tight at Inver Park
7/50 is a very skinny quote for FK Red Star Belgrade and 61/10 for the draw in Tuesday's UEFA Champions League qualification match. Gary Haveron's side will have a live chance to make this awkward if they can keep it tight and keep it competitive at Inver Park.
Red Star have won just 1, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 4 away matches in all competitions, so Larne could be a bit of a test for Dejan Stankovic's side, especially if they have good possession and control. Red Star have won 5 and lost 3 of their last 10 in all competitions, so they're not on an incredible run by any stretch of the imagination.
Larne, who have won seven of their last ten in all competitions, have found their rhythm at just the right moment for this tie. Red Star will have more of the ball on Tuesday, so this looks like a control-versus-containment type of chess match - the visitors will try to squeeze Larne out of the game while the home side will seek to absorb, reset and counter-attack.
Larne can be compact and counter
Red Star's last three matches have been a 1-2 home defeat to OFK Belgrade in the Super Liga championship group, a 1-3 friendly defeat to Zenit and a 5-0 Super Liga win over Mačva Šabac, so there's plenty of swing in their recent form line. Stankovic plays a proactive 4-2-3-1 or 4-1-4-1 based on possession, pressure and overloads in the wide and half-space lanes.
Larne have been playing a disciplined 3-4-1-2 with Haveron's wing-backs and narrow shape designed to stay compact and hit the opponents on the break. Matthew Lusty has been Larne's hottest finisher with 5 of their last 13 goals, but Dan Bent (1 goal in 2 games) has the edge in UEFA Champions League qualification as he knows how to get into the channel. Larne have averaged 3.00 goals per game scored and 1.20 conceded in Northern Irish home games this season, which suggests they can be efficient without going wild on Tuesday.
Red Star have averaged 1.25 goals per away match in all competitions, scoring just 5 goals in total away from home, so their road output has been steady rather than explosive. Larne, who have won 1-0 away and 2-1 at home respectively over SP Tre Fiori in the last round of qualification, know how to grind out knock-out football.
BTTS- No is the standout bet
Given that this looks likely to be a close, tense affair with both sides looking to keep the game within their preferred parameters, BTTS - No at 1/2 looks the standout selection for the evening's play. Under 2.5 Goals at 81/50 is the 2nd choice, backing up the opinion that Red Star should have a bit more than Larne, but the Northern Irish side can keep it close enough to get on the scoresheet.
