- At home in all competitions, Larne have won 3 and lost 1 of their last 4 matches.
- Larne's home matches average 3.25 goals scored and 1.25 conceded.
- The draw is 5.8.
Larne can win with room to spare
Larne come into this one at odds-on as the clear favourites at 1.2, and the odds on the draw are huge at 5.8, which suggests the market is pointing towards a home win on Tuesday.
The hosts have won their last 2, putting away Dungannon Swifts 8-0 in the previous round and then beating SP Tre Fiori 1-0 in the away leg of this tie, so they already have one foot in the next round.
They are in much better form than their guests, who are on a 2-match losing run after a 1-3 defeat to local opponents Fiorita and their loss to the Northern Irish side.
Can SP Tre Fiori spring a surprise?
SP Tre Fiori have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, so they could still snatch a result here, but the odds and the form book tell us that Larne are the side in form here. Across their last 10 in all competitions, SP Tre Fiori have won 6, drawn 2 and lost 2, and although they can be a serious side on their day, they're still playing catch-up on Larne.
Larne have momentum and can stretch the visitors
Across their last 10 in all competitions, Larne have won 7, drawn 1 and lost 2, and they certainly look the side in the ascendancy at the moment. Gary Haveron's side are playing with real bite and they're very versatile in transition, so they should be able to stretch the game and put the pressure on Tre Fiori here.
Danilo Girolomoni's men set up in a 3-4-1-2 system, but it's more about a narrow, deep block and looking to punish mistakes on the break or from set pieces. Larne's 4-4-2 is built to play at a high tempo, with aggressive pressing and quick counter-attacks following turnovers.
Larne to win to nil looks likely
At home, Larne have won 3 and lost 1 of their last 4, while SP Tre Fiori are unbeaten in 3 away from home, averaging 2.00 goals scored and 0.00 conceded. So, they can be dangerous, but Larne look likely to win at the very least.
Larne's main threat is Matthew Lusty, who has been deadly in front of goal with 5 in his last 5 games, including the 1-0 win over SP Tre Fiori. As such, Larne to win to nil does have some appeal, but the main selection will be Larne to win in the head-to-head market.
