- Atalanta have won one and drawn one of the last two H2H meetings with Venezia, but not their last home meeting in Serie A 2024/2025 (0-0). La Dea have won two and lost three of their last five games and have conceded just three goals in three Serie A 2026/2027 fixtures at home (W2, D0, L1). Venezia have lost their last three straight games in all competitions, most recently against Frosinone, Fiorentina and Lazio.
Sarri’s Serie A 2026/2027 set-up
Atalanta Bergamo are a much more organised and patient team than they were last season and with a different focus this time around. Maurizio Sarri's possession-first 4-3-3 system is all about the build-up from the centre and patient pressing from midfield, which is a far cry from the long balls of Gian Piero Gasperini's Atalanta of last season.
The change in system has not been all positive, with La Dea sitting 11th in Serie A 2026/2027 with six points from five games, and a run of three straight defeats is a concern for Sarri's side, who are far from the finished product he no doubt has in mind.
Ederson has started the season as Atalanta's leading scorer with 1 goal in 5 games, but he is playing deep in midfield. He brings bite in the centre of the pitch, but Atalanta's sharpest edge has come from the goals of Gianluca Scamacca (2 goals in 5 games), who has scored two of his side's last four goals in the last five matches.
Venezia in freefall
Venezia are the polar opposite of Atalanta this season, having taken just two shots at survival so far in Serie A 2026/2027 with a 0-0-2 away record (W0, D0, L2).
Gianluca Busio has recorded 2 assists in 4 league games so far for I Lagunari, who are 20th with zero points after a nightmare start to the Serie A 2026/2027 campaign. Giovanni Stroppa has set his men up in a back-three system that aims to overload the flanks and control the territory, but they have been in freefall for a while now, recording five straight defeats in all competitions.
The defeats in their last three games have been to Frosinone, Fiorentina and Lazio, but Richie Sagrado has managed to get on the scoresheet twice in the same period, providing one of the few sparking options in attack for Venezia.
Atalanta are the clear favourites
La Dea will be the clear favourite to beat Venezia here with an odds of 27/50, but that's still far shorter than the visitors' 23/5 for the win. However, Atalanta are coming off a run of 3 straight losses, while Venezia have been awful all season.
But the value is in the home side here because of their clear superiority in terms of talent and structure, and Atalanta to win and over 2.5 goals looks the best way of approaching this game in the markets, while both teams to score does indeed also appeal.
Atalanta's structured passing game will have more control, but Venezia will look to stretch the game wide and pounce on transitions. Akor Adams leads the way for Venezia with 1 goal in 5 Serie A games.
