- BATE Borisov are winless in 4 home matches in all competitions (D2, L2).
- Af Elbasani are the 11/10 favourites to win the return leg, but it's 2/1 for the home side and 13/5 for the draw.
BATE Borisov vs Af Elbasani: a cagey second leg in the making
A 1-1 draw in the 1st leg means that this UEFA Conference League Qualification 2026 2nd leg tie is well poised but there's a strange tilt to the market. BATE are 2/1 to win at home, the draw is 13/5 and Af are 11/10 favourites to advance. The hosts are winless in 4, the visitors are coming off a 1-1 draw at Borisov Arena and have a volatile away form record but we'll go with the odds-on price for the away side to at least edge it, although another cagey draw has to be a real possibility.
BATE have been underperforming under Vitali Rogozhkin since his appointment as manager on 15th May 2026 and their recent form has been poor. In all competitions they've played 5, won 0, drawn 2 and lost 3, which is a run that spells stubborn but blunt. They've failed to get the better of Af in this tie and have now gone 4 without a win at the Borisov Arena, drawing 2 and losing 2.
Elbasani have won 2 and lost 3 of their 5 competitive away matches. They come into this game after a 3-0 home win over Dinamo Tirana in Kategoria Superiore 2025, a 1-2 win away to KS Vllaznia Shkoder in the same competition and the aforementioned 1-1 draw with BATE in the first leg.
Elbasani’s orthodox style can outflank BATE’s low block
Vitali Rogozhkin employs a flexible 3-1-4-2 formation for BATE that is built on structure, compact spacing and counter punches. Ivan Gvozdenovic has been in charge of Af since 5 December 2024 and his orthodox 4-2-3-1 is all about vertical transitions, wing switches and quick combinations. These two tactical approaches should make for an interesting matchup and the tightness of the 1st leg may have led Gvozdenovic to prioritise high-tempo wide attacks and using the channels.
Maksim Sakuta has 2 goals in 5 and is BATE's main threat. Egor Rusakov has 1 goal in 1 in the competition for BATE, while Ardit Nikaj has scored 1 in 1 for Af. Af average 1.60 goals per away game with 8 scored in 5 competitive trips.
