- Home form: BATE Borisov are winless in 4 home games across all competitions (2 draws, 2 losses)
- Away record: Af Elbasani have won 2 and lost 3 of their 5 away games across all competitions
- Away goals per game: Af Elbasani have averaged 1.60 goals per road game across all competitions (8 goals total)
BATE may struggle to break down Elbasani
Odds and form
The first leg of this UEFA Conference League Qualification 2026 tie finished 1-1, so this return match looks to be finely poised, but the odds favor Af Elbasani at 2.1 and BATE are 3.0, with a draw at 3.6.
BATE are winless in 4 matches at home across all competitions (2 losses, 2 draws), while Af Elbasani have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5 games. So we have two teams in poor form facing off here, but Elbasani have a bit more punch to them, which may be why the odds lean their way.
Recent matches
The hosts lost 0-1 at home to FC Gomel in the Vysshaya Liga 2026 and drew 1-1 away to Af Elbasani in the UEFA Conference League Qualification 2026.
The visitors arrived here off the back of a 3-0 home win against Dinamo Tirana in the Kategoria Superiore 2025 and a 1-2 away win at KS Vllaznia Shkoder in the Kategoria Superiore 2025 before last Thursday's 1-1 draw with BATE.
Rogozhkin’s rigid and disciplined BATE
Manager and system
Vitali Rogozhkin has been BATE's manager since his appointment on 15 May 2026. BATE's structure is built around a flexible 3-1-4-2 system that is heavily based on structure and compact spacing.
Attack and scorers
- Rogozhkin's main attacking punch is through counter punches.
- Maksim Sakuta has been their hot hand, scoring 2 of the team's 3 goals across the last 5 games in all competitions.
- BATE have scored just 1 goal in 1 match in UEFA Conference League Qualification 2026, scored by Egor Rusakov.
Gvozdenovic’s orthodox and dynamic Elbasani
System and key player
Af Elbasani have an orthodox 4-2-3-1 system deployed by Ivan Gvozdenovic, who took the reigns on 5 December 2024. This system relies on the strength of Ardit Nikaj, who has scored Af's only goal in UEFA Conference League Qualification 2026 (1 goal in 1 appearance).
Playing style and assessment
Gvozdenovic's main idea is to build up play through his wide players and quick combinations, then penetrate the box through the center.
Af Elbasani's last 10 across all competitions reads 5 wins, 1 draw and 4 defeats, but their ceiling is not as high as BATE's, nor is their floor as deep, making them a more dangerous team with a sharper ceiling.
The two teams have a slightly different approach to games, with BATE favouring a low block while Elbasani try to play high tempo wide attacks. This tactical contrast should make for a tight game, with the difference coming down to which team gets the better of the other in the channels.
Our prediction is Af Elbasani to win 1-0 at 2.1. BATE have not been good and their home form is a real worry for this game.
Af Elbasani have been better than BATE, but we feel they are a bit short at 2.1, given the first-leg result. Therefore, a narrow away win or cagey 0-0 draw seems more likely.
