- Chelsea have won three of the last five meetings between the sides across FA Cup and all competitions, with one draw and one win for Leeds United.
- Chelsea have won four of their last five games and are the clear form favourites.
Chelsea are the team to fear
Chelsea are the strong favourites at 31/50 ahead of this clash with Leeds United, who are 79/20 with a draw at 59/20 and the Blues do look the likeliest team to progress from this EFL Cup 2026-2027 round.
Chelsea beat Leeds 1-0 in the FA Cup 2025/2026 four months ago and Xabi Alonso's side have won four of their last five matches. Their last two results have been a 2-0 home victory against Luton Town in the EFL Cup and a 4-3 win at home to Brighton in the Premier League.
Leeds United are in indifferent form, having won three, drawn one and lost one of their last five matches in all competitions. Daniel Farke's side followed up back-to-back away wins over Nottingham Forest in the EFL Cup and Premier League with a 1-1 home draw against Brentford.
Leeds can get in the game
Alonso has his Blues playing with structured positional build-up, width from their wing-backs and a versatile shape that can change from a back three to back four to suit the situation. Leeds have a good press and a genuine pace threat on the flanks, which should give them a chance to get turnovers and hit Chelsea on the break.
Chelsea are the favourite to win, but Leeds' pressing and transition quality could make it interesting enough for a Leeds double chance play. A Chelsea win to nil looks about right for the price and this matchup and we are going for a progression for the hosts, who have won their last four matches and have a solid home record.
Joao Pedro has been Chelsea's hot hand with five of the Blues' 13 goals in their last five coming from the Brazilian's boot.
