- In the first leg of the UEFA Conference League Qualification tie, Hibs were slightly fortunate to beat Shkendija 2-1 and the North Macedonians will probably be more of a threat in their return leg.
- Almir Kryeziu is Shkendija's focal point, he's their top scorer in UEFA Conference League Qualification with 2 goals in 5 appearances.
- Owen Elding has been Hibs' sharpest finisher in this competition, also with 2 goals in 3 matches.
Hibs to win and Shkendija to nick it
Hibs are the favourites here at 36/25 but there's enough of a chance in the game that Shkendija are worth a small wager at 187/100, with the draw at 253/100 also a distinct possibility.
Shkendija are coming off the back of a 3-0 win over FK Vardar Skopje after a 3-1 win over NK Bravo. Prior to that they were beaten 2-1 by Hibs, so they've already landed the first punch in this contest.
It was 2-1 to Hibs in the match day one match of the tie in Scotland, meaning that game was effectively a must-win for Shkendija. After that success they beat FC Malisheva 4-1, but lost 2-1 to Motherwell at the weekend, so they're hardly in good form.
Shkendija's form is a mixed bag, with 3 wins and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches. Across all competitions, they've won 5, drawn 1 and lost 4 of their last 10, while Hibs have won 6 and lost 4 of their previous 10.
Shkendija's style is relatively simple and Artim Polozani has done a great job of putting together a compact side capable of vertical play. They usually line up in a 4-2-3-1 or 4-3-3, but will often play a 5-4-1 in transition or against teams that sit deep. Hibs can line up in a back four or a wing-back shape, depending on the system of the opposition.
Shkendija are scoring 2.00 goals per game on average and conceding 1.30 across all competitions this season, suggesting that Hibs should get chances to break them down and that they will be exposed at the back. Hibs have conceded 12 goals across their last 10 in all competitions, an average of 1.20, so they should have enough solidity to avoid getting pummelled.
All told, Hibernian look the more likely winners, but I wouldn't expect a comfortable stroll. Hibernian are the more likely winners, but the odds on that outcome are too short, and both sides' recent scoring records suggest that a tight European fixture with Under 2.5 goals & BTTS - Yes at 93/100 and 13/20 respectively is more likely.
David Gray has been at the helm since May 15, 2024, and he seems to be implementing his preferred brand of pragmatic, trigger happy pressing.
