- Motherwell are the slight favourites for this game at 1/1, but HJK look set to put up a fight.
- The draw is priced at 259/100, with the Finns at 279/100, so this could go the distance.
- Under 2.5 goals is the best option for the main bet, with BTTS at 18/25.
A solid start for HJK
Motherwell and HJK Helsinki drew 1-1 in the first leg of their UEFA Conference League Qualification 2026 tie, so this isn't looking like an easy one-sided tie for the Scottish side after all.
The hosts will probably come into this game as favourites, but HJK Helsinki have the better form across all competitions after winning six, drawing one and losing three of their last ten games. Motherwell have won four, drawn two and lost four of their previous ten.
HJK's danger man in this tie is Teemu Pukki, who has scored three goals so far in the UEFA Conference League Qualification and three of their ten goals in the last five matches, so he is a good option for an anytime goal scorer.
Fir Park could be a chessboard
Motherwell come into this one with three wins, one draw and a defeat from their last five, a 2-1 win away to Hibernian. HJK Helsinki have won three, drawn one and lost one of their last five, with that defeat coming away to Seinajoen Jalkapallokerho in a 3-0 thrashing.
The Steelmen have won one, drawn one and lost two of their home games across all competitions, conceding eight goals at an average of 2.00 goals per game. HJK Helsinki have won two and lost two of their away games, scoring 1.75 goals per game and conceding 1.25 goals on average away from home.
Alfred Johansson's Motherwell have a much more compact shape, whether 4-3-3 or 4-1-4-1, which should allow them to stay compact and launch fast breaks when space is available. Joonas Rantanen's HJK side are much more about combination play and controlling the game with wide overloads.
That should lead to a chess match on Thursday night, with the only thing that remains a variable is whether Motherwell's transitional bite will be enough to hurt the Finns or whether they'll be pinned back. Under 2.5 goals seems the best bet in this fixture, but I think both teams could nick it by one moment of quality, so a second 1-1 draw is my correct score prediction.
