- Guardiola’s side have adapted to play more directly in recent matches, but are just as dangerous.
- Southampton are unbeaten in five, beating Swansea 2-1, QPR 5-0 and, in the FA Cup quarter-finals, Coventry 2-1.
- Southampton’s cup run has been built around the finishing of Armstrong and the pace of Archer.
Saints can make history
Manchester City are 1/4 with the bookies and underdog Southampton are massive underdogs with all the major bookies ahead of Saturday’s 2025-2026 FA Cup semi-final showdown at Wembley. Saints, who occupy a Championship playoff place, are the last non-Premier League team in the competition and can make a fairytale cup run if they can pull off an upset and make the final at the home of English football.
Tonda Eckert’s side could be the first non-Premier League finalists in the FA Cup since 2008 when they face off against Pep Guardiola’s Citizens in what is a classic David vs Goliath encounter. The sun should be shining, the Wembley atmosphere will be buzzing and Saints will be desperate to keep the fairytale alive, so it should be a good game.
Guardiola’s men are locked in the title race in the Premier League with 64 points from 31 games - just over half of the total points available - and a game in hand on the leaders. They are overwhelming favourites to win the biggest game of their season on Saturday and have been in incredible form since the turn of the year with several high intensity performances across league and cup.
Guardiola’s team are on fire
City’s quarter-final win was a masterclass of possession dominance, positional rotation and fluidity that most elite sides in the world would struggle to replicate. They vary between a 4-3-3 and a three-at-the-back system in which their full-backs operate as inverted wing-backs in possession. When they press, which they do with great success, they do it with numbers, and when they don’t, they play with the ball on the ground, creating overloads and slowing the tempo down.
Southampton are a different kind of team in terms of what they try to do on the pitch. Eckert is a master of organisation, they are a physical team that plays with discipline, compactness, counter-pressing, and a knack of picking their moments to be a bit more adventurous. They use set-pieces to good effect, but their real danger comes in transition when they can catch City off guard.
Armstrong and Archer have been Southampton’s main attacking outlets in the cups, but the real stars have been Finn Azaz and Shea Charles. The midfield duo bring a huge amount of creativity in terms of set-pieces and overall forward play, but they also offer some defensive grit, which could be necessary against the likes of Erling Haaland and Phil Foden. The Norwegian is their leading scorer by miles and is their greatest threat, but Foden is the man that can provide the spark that wins games when rotated into the team.
City can control the game
Guardiola has adapted his City team over recent weeks to play a little more directly and press with fewer numbers, but they are still just as devastating when they get the ball. Backing the Citizens to win and over 2.5 goals looks a strong play here at 19/50, particularly given Southampton’s FA Cup exploits this term.
City have dominated the head-to-head in all competitions and won the reverse Premier League clash 1-0 on 26th October 2024. They are likely to take a step closer to another domestic final on Saturday, but Southampton are a tough nut to crack and could make a game of it.
