- Team form: Toluca have won seven of their last 12 matches against Mazatlan in all competitions.
- Table positions: Toluca are 5th in Liga MX Clausura 2026 with 27 points, while Mazatlan are 17th with 11 points.
- Scoring edge: Toluca have scored approximately twice as many goals as Mazatlan in this fixture and have often won by multiple-goal margins in Liga MX clashes.
Mazatlan must make most of home advantage in relegation struggle
Mazatlan FC have had to battle hard for survival in their last season of Liga MX soccer. Sergio Bueno took over in January 2026 but has struggled to steady the ship in a club that is in transition and is rife with instability.
Facundo Almada and Édgar Bárcenas will be the main sources of goal threat again on Thursday and could hurt Toluca on set pieces or when on the counterattack. Jaziel Ovalle has been Mazatlán’s top scorer with three or four goals and will be their most likely source of goals against Los Diablos Rojos.
Toluca are the most consistent team in the top group in Liga MX and Antonio Mohamed’s pragmatic, well organised approach has resulted in a steady stream of results in both Liga MX and the Concacaf Champions League. The loss of Marcel Ruiz to a long-term ACL injury has hit their creative supply from midfield, but Helinho and Jorge Gallardo have provided enough spark to supply Paulinho with chances and he is in the hunt for the league’s top scorer award, which will give him extra incentive to keep his hot streak on Thursday.
Toluca are good value to win in their own half
Odds and recent form
Toluca are the bookmakers' strong favorites at 1.46 for this game and that seems reasonable given the sides’ respective positions in the table and form, with the visitors unbeaten in five in all competitions. They thrashed Necaxa 5-1 in their most recent Liga MX match and hammered Pumas 4-2.
Mazatlán form and head-to-head
Mazatlan have one win in five with one draw and three defeats, the latter against Pumas (3-1) and América (2-0) in their most recent fixtures. The visitors are also the superior outfit in the head-to-head, so there’s plenty of reason to back Mohamed’s men.
Their attack will go at Mazatlán’s defence in a clash of attacking philosophy versus blocking philosophy and the warm and humid conditions at Estadio El Encanto will suit the home side more in the early running. But with the quality Toluca possess, they should win.
- Backing over 2.5 goals at 1.48 and Both Teams to Score at 1.64 also appeal given the nature of this fixture over the years, but it’s Toluca’s superior quality and quantity of goals that is reflected in the odds.
- Mazatlán will want to make this their best home game of the season and are more desperate than ever, so they could be dangerous on the break.
- But Toluca have had little trouble away from home in 2026 and Mohamed’s ability to rotate his squad and use several different tactical approaches has meant the squad has not run out of steam.
