- Southampton are unbeaten at home in the Championship with 1 win from 1 game, scoring an average of 3.00 and conceding an average of 1.00.
- Millwall are unbeaten away in the Championship with 1 win from 1 away game, scoring an average of 2.00 and conceding an average of 0.00.
- The last five head-to-heads have been very even with 2 wins each and 1 draw, with the last meeting at St Mary's ending 0-0 in the Championship 2025/2026.
Saints v The Lions
Southampton sit in 24th place with -1 points from 2 games whilst Millwall are top of the pile with 6 points from 2, suggesting that the visitors have a chance of causing an upset on Saturday.
Southampton head into this one after 5 games across all competitions with 4 wins and 1 loss (W4, L1). The Saints' last 3 games have seen them win 2-0 at Colchester United away in the EFL Cup, lose 2-1 away to Watford in the Championship and win 3-1 at home to Stoke in the Championship.
Millwall come into this game in much better form than their hosts with 4 wins and 1 draw across their last 5 games and a current 4-game winning streak (W4, D1). The Lions' last 3 matches have seen them draw 1-1 at Queens Park Rangers and then win the shootout in the EFL Cup, before beating Bristol City 2-0 away in the Championship and thumping Norwich City 3-0 at home.
In the driving seats
Saints boss Tonda Eckert has Southampton set up in a possession-first way, they build up in a controlled manner before looking to play on the front foot with some verticality when the gaps appear. Millwall boss Alex Neil has his side set up compact and transition-heavy, with some real pace in the wide areas and a forward who can get on the ball and make the runs to get the ball in the box at pace.
St Mary’s set to host a ripper
This one looks like a real tactical clash at St Mary's and one that could go either way, but there is enough evidence to suggest that Millwall will make this tough for the Saints. Southampton are winless against Millwall in their last 2 home games and The Lions will know exactly how to make life difficult for the hosts on Saturday.
There is certainly an argument that Millwall should be much closer to the odds than they currently are with 31/10 as underdogs here, but there are two reasons we're backing the hosts. Firstly, Southampton haven't lost at their home ground in the Championship yet. Second, the attacking numbers are heavily in the favour of the Saints. Cyle Larin is the main man for the home side with 2 goals in 2 Championship matches and Josh Coburn has been the focal point of the visitors' play up top and is also on 2 in 2.
We can expect an open game, so we're recommending both teams to score and over 2.5 goals at 73/100 and 83/100 respectively. Southampton are a small favourite at 21/25, with the draw coming in at 5/2.
