- Valur Reykjavik have won three, drawn one and lost six of their last 10 matches in all competitions
- HSK Zrinjski Mostar have won five, drawn three and lost two of their last 10 in all competitions
- Valur Reykjavik have scored seven goals in four home games in all competitions, an average of 1.75 per game
Visitors in better shape
Valur come into the first leg of this UEFA Conference League Qualification 2026 encounter in poor form after three straight losses that includes a 2-0 away defeat to FH Hafnarfjordur and a 3-2 home loss to Fram Reykjavik. HSK Zrinjski Mostar have won three and drawn two of their last five, staying unbeaten and looking much more settled in contrast to their opponents.
There's a contrast in styles here that should make this interesting with Valur's preferred system a 4-3-3 or 4-2-3-1 that seeks to overload wide areas and has advanced full-backs to stretch the opposition. Hermann Hreidarsson's side will look to counter-press and recover the ball quickly, turning over in wide areas can often lead to vertical balls into the opposition half and quick chances.
Zrinjski are likely to come and put Valur under the maximum pressure that they can right from the off, so this will be a battle of width and possession against pressure and discipline. Simon Rožman's side prefer a high intensity press when they don't have the ball and sit in a compact shape that is hard to break through centrally when they do.
Zrinjski can hold their own
Zrinjski have won three, drawn one and lost two of their six away matches in all competitions, which is a stronger away record than Valur's 1-1-2 on home turf. They have conceded six goals in those six away games, which is 1.00 per game and suggests they are reasonably strong defensively.
Tryggvi Hrafn Haraldsson has scored two of Valur's five goals in their last five games, so he is their sharpest edge in the final third. However, Zrinjski have a clinical marksman in the shape of Nemanja Bilbija, who has scored five of their eight goals in the last five and could be the difference in a close game. Backing the visitors or the draw in the double chance market is a sensible play given the visitors unbeaten run of three wins and two draws.
Although the bookmakers have Valur at 4/5 and Zrinjski at 343/100 with the draw at 14/5, this tie is a little tighter than that on paper. It's also likely to be affected by the managerial changes at both clubs with a little tinkering by both coaches early in the tie likely to play a part in who advances.
