- Caernarfon Town FC have won three and lost three of their six home matches in all competitions this season.
- Caernarfon are averaging 1.67 goals per game at home across all competitions this term.
- FC Levadia Tallinn are unbeaten in seven away matches, winning seven and scoring 20 goals (average 2.86).
Caernarfon could have a puncher’s chance
FC Levadia Tallinn arrive in much better shape than Caernarfon Town FC for this UEFA Conference League Qualification 2026 clash at The Oval on Thursday. The visitors have won eight, drawn one and lost one of their last ten in all competitions, while the Welsh team are 4-1-5.
Vjatseslav Zahovaiko has done a great job since taking over in January 2026 and his team plays a dynamic 4-2-3-1 formation that is proactive in terms of pressing, but also very good at playing in the channels and quick on the counter. Bubacarr Tambedou has three goals in his last five appearances, which forms part of a 10-goal run for the Gambian.
Richard Davies has done well since April 2023 and he has fashioned a compact and pragmatic team that likes to sit deep and get on the break. It is a good game plan against a team like Levadia, but it is not always simple to smother the space and the visitors' tempo and pressing style are tailored to force turnovers and stretch the hosts wide.
Levadia look the most likely winners
The odds reflect the obvious difference in class of the two teams with Levadia the slight favourites at 2.4, compared to Caernarfon at 2.6 and the draw at 3.5. The Blue-Black have been in a mixed run of results with a 1-1 away draw against JK Nomme Kalju and a 1-2 home defeat to Flora Tallinn, but they are still sharp from a 3-1 away win at JK Trans Narva in their last three.
The Gogs have hit a nice groove with three straight wins, including a 3-0 Welsh Cup win at Flint Town United and a 2-0 win at Penybont in the Welsh Premier League. But it still looks more likely that Levadia, who are ruthless on the road, will prevail here, although Caernarfon's run of good form means this could be a proper battle if the hosts hold shape.
Levadia to win and both teams to score looks the best fit for this matchup given the visiting team's firepower on the road and Caernarfon's counter-threat.
