- FK Liepaja have split their last two home games. FK Decic Tuzi are winless in their last five away games, with one draw and four defeats. FK Liepaja have won four and lost one of their five home games in all competitions.
Liepaja have the bit between the teeth
In what looks a closely matched UEFA Conference League qualification tie, FK Liepaja should just edge the first leg of this clash between two struggling sides at Skonto Stadium on Thursday.
The Latvian hosts have had a poor start to the new campaign in all competitions, winning four, drawing one and losing five of their ten games since the season began. But they do have an extra home game under their belts and seem to have some extra bite when playing in front of their own fans.
Vladimir Vassiljev has been around the block a few times and seems to have installed a settled and structured base to this team after he was appointed as coach. The style is wide and Liepaja's 4-3-3 formation tends to play to the flanks and can pressure teams when they get their pressing right.
Decic could get a run on counter-attacks
FK Decic Tuzi are a little more compact and reactive by comparison, morphing between a 4-2-3-1 and back-three system to sit deep and hit on the counter. Ivan Brnovic's side are coming into this with one win and four defeats in their last five games.
That's a nasty skid and one that will have the Montenegrins on the back foot for this first encounter, which is another reason to back the hosts here. But Decic can certainly get a few runs on the break, so the odds on them - which are a bit better than even money - don't quite reflect the true picture here.
Liepaja are listed at 2.5 to win with the draw coming in at 3.1. Backing the hosts is the way to go in this encounter because they have more of a home edge, but we will be cautious with our selection in the correct score market because of Decic's counter-attack threat.
Liepaja’s Vieira the danger man
Fellipe Vieira has been in good form for Liepaja, scoring two of their five goals in the last five matches, while Trimror Selimi has been the sharp edge for Decic, netting two of their four goals over the same period.
Liepaja have scored 11 goals in their five previous home fixtures, an average of 2.20 per game, but Decic have conceded eight in five away fixtures in all competitions, so we can see some goals in this game, even if the Latvians are the more likely to score. A home win is the most probable outcome of this battle of width versus compression.
