- Recent form: Larne have won their last two matches, beating SP Tre Fiori 0-1 away in UEFA Champions League Qualification 2026 last week.
- Opponents form: SP Tre Fiori are on a two-game losing streak, having lost 1-3 at home to Fiorita and 0-1 away to Larne in UEFA Champions League Qualification 2026.
- Scoring form: Larne have scored 11 goals in their last five matches.
Larne look a level above Tre Fiori
Larne come into this game as the clear favorites at 1.2, and the odds of 5.8 about the draw seem too high too, so the market is pointing towards a home win on Tuesday. The bookmakers have been right in their evaluation, as Larne have won three, drawn one, and lost one of their last five. Across their last 10 matches in all competitions, Larne have won seven, drawn one, and lost two, so it is clear which team comes into this clash in the better form overall.
Gary Haveron has done a very good job at Larne since taking over on 15th October 2025, getting his team to play with real bite in the 4-4-2 system and being flexible enough to turn on the pressure on the break or from wide areas. Matthew Lusty has been the main goal threat for Larne in UEFA Champions League Qualification 2026, with five goals scored in their last five games, including a goal in their 1-0 win over SP Tre Fiori last week.
Tre Fiori can keep it close, but not for long
Tactics and setup
SP Tre Fiori are a solid, well-organised unit, but one that plays to score on the counter-attack or from set pieces, rather than being the dominant force that Larne should be. Danilo Girolomoni has done a fantastic job with Tre Fiori since taking over on 1st July 2024, turning the San Marino side into a narrow, deep, and effective 3-4-1-2 unit that is capable of frustrating teams and punishing them for mistakes.
Form, records and betting
They have won six, drawn two, and lost two across their last 10 games in all competitions, which shows that they can compete with the best in San Marino, but there is a definite gap between them and Larne right now.
The goals markets look lively for this game, with Over 2.5 at 1.7 and Both Teams To Score – No at 1.54, both a shade low. We'll take Over 2.5 as the main selection because Larne will be looking to take control and are likely to get the game flowing at some point.
A Larne win to nil also fits the bet selection, as the BTTS – No odds are much higher than those for BTTS – Yes, suggesting that the market is already leaning towards a victory for the hosts. And that is the correct bet here, as Larne have the form, the quality, and the home advantage to get the job done.
- Tre Fiori's form has been mixed over the last month or so, with two wins, one draw, and two defeats from their last five.
- Tre Fiori are unbeaten away from home, having won three of three in all competitions, scoring an average of 2.00 goals per game and conceding an average of 0.00.
- Larne have won three and lost one of their four games at Inver Park this season, scoring an average of 3.25 goals and conceding an average of 1.25.
