- Paderborn have a slight edge in all areas across the last 10 games, winning 5-3-2 in all competitions, scoring enough goals to keep things close in all scenarios.
- Freiburg are in better overall form, winning 7 of their last 10 matches in all competitions, and bringing a 5-0-0 winning streak to Paderborn on Saturday.
An entertaining game looks assured
The styles of these two clubs are a perfect contrast in this fixture and there should be plenty of action in the 90 minutes. Paderborn are a direct, high-intensity, counter-pressing side who can turn the ball over and be in your half in a blink of an eye, while Freiburg are a compact, structured, disciplined team who operate in a 4-2-3-1/4-4-2 hybrid and are very comfortable playing vertical, controlled possession football.
Ralf Kettemann's Paderborn, who took charge on 1st July 2025, have leaned into a back three with wing-backs and a three in front. They rotate between the three forward players and the three wide players to overload the defensive line and break through quickly. In this system, Stefano Marino has been a standout performer, scoring two of the team's six goals in the last five matches (5-3-2, 6 goals scored, 5 conceded).
Julian Schuster, who took the reigns on 1st July 2024, has Freiburg working well together in their compact system, moving together as a unit when pressing and breaking compactly with the ball. They are in red hot form, winning each of their last five matches, with a 3-1 away win over Motherwell in UEFA Conference League Qualification, a 5-1 away win over TSV Fortuna Dusseldorf in DFB Pokal and a 4-1 home win over Motherwell in UEFA Conference League Qualification.
A home for away day specialists
Paderborn have drawn their last five-match stretch 4-1-0, showing they are in very good form and a team that is difficult to shake loose. They have been involved in some high scoring games of late, with 2.75 goals scored and 2.25 goals conceded per match on average in their four home games in all competitions. In contrast, Freiburg have scored 3.25 goals and conceded 1.50 goals per match on their travels in all competitions.
Freiburg enter this fixture as slight favorites at 2.44, ahead of Paderborn at 2.7 and the draw at 3.45. The correct price has to be Over 2.5 goals at 1.65, while BTTS (both teams to score) at 1.53 looks like the slightly better choice in a game that should see plenty of goal mouth action. Freiburg's form gives them the edge, but Paderborn have enough of an edge to cause an upset at Home Deluxe Arena, Germany, where SC Paderborn 07 will be looking to emulate the result from the most recent head-to-head match 2 years ago in DFB Pokal 2023/2024, a game that ended 3-1 away from home.
