- Houston Dynamo's best bet to beat Austin FC on Sunday is for the home side to win with over 2.5 goals scored.
- Houston Dynamo rank 11th in MLS 2026 with 22 points from 14 games, 8 more than Austin, who are 27th with 14 points from 15 matches.
- The last head-to-head meeting of these two in MLS 2026 finished 2-0 to Austin FC but the previous 5 meetings have been split 2 wins apiece with 1 draw.
Houston should have the upper hand
The odds for Sunday's Texas derby look all wrong to us with Houston Dynamo the strong 51/100 favourites with a huge 24/5 on Austin FC to take a 33/10 draw. The hosts are rightly favoured to win and the best bet in the game is probably Houston to nick it at home, but the derby nature of this game and Austin's desperation to end their away woes can keep things close for long periods.
Houston Dynamo's recent form has been a little patchy, W2 D1 L2 in their last 5 games across all competitions. They showed their metal to draw 2-2 with St. Louis in the U.S. Open Cup, before losing on penalties, and then battled back to tie 1-1 with LA Galaxy in MLS 2026 last week.
The hosts have done really well and have been excellent at Shell Energy Stadium, winning 5, drawing 0 and losing 2 so far this season in MLS 2026. They score an average of 1.14 goals per match at home and have conceded an average of 0.86, so the platform is there for them to take control of this match against a visiting side that have conceded 25 goals on the road.
Austin’s away woes could be extended again
Austin FC are 8 points worse off than Houston in the table but they are still winless away from home in MLS 2026 after 8 games, 3 draws and 5 defeats. They have played well in patches recently, battling back to draw 2-2 with St. Louis City, in the U.S. Open Cup before getting beaten on penalties and then taking a 1-1 draw from an MLS 2026 fixture with LA Galaxy.
Houston's coach Ben Olsen has his side switching shapes well between a narrow front to counter against teams that use a high block, and a more aggressive counter-pressing style to hunt turnovers high up the pitch. On the other hand, Davy Arnaud's men have a more patient approach, setting up a compact mid-to-low block with selective pressing when out of possession.
Austin's recent results are 1 win, 1 draw and 3 losses in their last 5 matches across all current competitions, but they are yet to claim an away win in MLS 2026, which keeps this matchup tight despite Houston's favouritism and the gap between the sides in the MLS 2026 standings.
Guilherme Augusto to lead the charge for hosts
Backing Houston to edge the game with over 2.5 total goals scored is the main play here, as the derby vibe will bring an end-to-end style of game where the visitors will want to keep matches controlled and the home team will want to play at a quick tempo and look to land vertical punches when they can.
Houston have the attacking tools to cause their visitors all sorts of problems on Sunday, with playmaker Guilherme Augusto looking a cut above the rest with 8 goals in 14 MLS 2026 appearances. He's scored 3 of Houston's last 8 goals in their previous 5 matches, making him an excellent bet to get on the scoresheet.
Striker Myrto Uzuni has 5 MLS 2026 goals in 13 appearances and is Austin's most reliable source of goals, but Christian Ramirez has also weighed in with 2 goals in a run of 5 total goals for the visitors.
