- Austin are 8 points adrift of Houston in MLS 2026 standings.
- Austin have yet to win away from home in MLS 2026 (D3, L5).
- Guilherme Augusto has 8 MLS 2026 goals for Houston in 14 games, the club's best.
Houston have the quality to edge Texas derby
Houston Dynamo will justify their short price for Sunday's MLS 2026 Texas Derby against Austin FC, who are coming up short of their lofty offseason expectations. The Dynamo are 1.51 to win the game and Austin are a 5.8 shot, but the odds are better on the home side to do the business and take the bragging rights for this Western Conference rivalry.
Houston are 11th with 22 points from 14 games while Austin are 27th with 14 from 15, so there is a clear gulf in the table. But Austin are yet to win at Houston in MLS 2026 after eight games as visitors, so the derby day tension should ensure this is close at times.
Houston have two wins, one draw and two losses in their last five across all competitions. They have been resilient, however, holding St Louis City to a 2-2 draw in the U.S. Open Cup before losing on penalties, then drawing 1-1 with LA Galaxy.
Austin need a miracle to get close
Ben Olsen's men are switching shapes well, mixing a narrow front with aggressive counter-pressing, which doesn't sit well with Austin's more patient build-up. Davy Arnaud's side are more of a possession team and play with a compact mid-to-low block, which allows them to keep the ball and apply selective pressure to control the game.
That stylistic clash could make for a chess match on Sunday, but Houston can win if they can make a few turnovers high up the field.
Austin's last five games have seen them win once, draw once and lose three times. They were thumped 5-0 at San Diego FC, lost 1-2 at home to Sporting Kansas City, were thrashed 3-0 at St. Louis City and only managed to draw at home with lowly San Jose Earthquakes before that.
Dynamo likely to nick it
Austin are desperate for points so should make it hard for Houston at the Shell Energy Stadium, but the home team's superiority in quality should see them win in the end.
Houston's home record of 5-0-2 in MLS 2026, averaging 1.14 goals scored per game and conceding 0.86 per game, suggests they are more likely to get the three points on Sunday. The best companion bet for the home side to make it interesting at times appears to be the over 2.5 goals and both teams to score market at 1.62.
