- Millwall have won two and drawn one of the last three meetings between the teams, but Millwall have won one of their last five, while Derby County have failed to win any of their last five.
- Millwall have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their 6 home games in the Championship 2026/2027.
- Derby County have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their 6 away games in the Championship 2026/2027.
Lions can hold their own against Rams
Millwall can hold their own against Derby County in what is likely to be a cagey match at The Den on Saturday. Alex Neil has set his side up compactly this season and they have mixed up a back four with either a 4-2-3-1 or narrow 4-3-3. The Lions are not particularly explosive, but their organisation and pace on the counter-attack can work well against some teams. Neil will be looking for his team to press in short, sharp bursts and profit from any turnovers.
Camiel Neghli has chipped in with two goals in the last five for Millwall, which has helped them score six times in that spell. Lyndon Dykes has been the main source of goals with four in eight Championship 2026/2027 appearances so far and Neil knows he can always rely on the former Queen of the South man to be a threat.
Derby County also have an organised structure, albeit a more pragmatic one under John Eustace, who has gone with a 4-2-3-1 or a narrow 4-3-3. The Rams set up with a compact mid/low block and can be dangerous on the break if they time their triggers correctly. Bobby Clark has been the Rams' main goal source with two in eight Championship 2026/2027 games so they will need him to be at his best here to find a way through.
Den will be a hard place to visit
This game has all the hallmarks of a chess match. Derby County have lost their way a little and are now winless in five with three draws and two defeats, while Millwall have been equally unconvincing with one win, two draws and two losses in their last five.
The Lions sit 13th on 15 points from 12 games while the visitors are 23rd with seven. Derby will fancy their chance of avoiding defeat against such company, but their away form has not been great either with no wins in three, two draws and one defeat. They have also conceded 11 in six away games.
Millwall have the edge at home
The home side have the better record against the opposition, having won 1-0 here in the Championship 2025/2026 seven months ago to extend their advantage in this matchup. Millwall are 0-2-1 in their last three at The Den, but Derby have failed to take all three points on either of their trips to Millwall, so the hosts get our vote in the draw no bet market.
Under 2.5 goals at 19/20 seems a smarter bet than the odds-on hosts here, but the game will almost certainly be close and cagey. We have a narrow Millwall win as the likeliest outcome, but Derby's stubborn block could keep things very tight and tense for long periods, so don't expect any fireworks.
