- Nashville SC have won four of their last five matches and are on a three-game winning streak in MLS 2026.
- FC Cincinnati have two wins, two draws and one defeat in their last five games and look to be making progress.
- Nashville SC are unbeaten in front of their own fans in MLS 2026, winning ten and drawing one of 11 games at Geodis Park.
Odds on Nashville for good reason
Nashville SC are rightful favourites for Sunday's clash at Geodis Park, but FC Cincinnati should not be underestimated by the hosts. The Boys in Gold sit top of the MLS 2026 table with 49 points from 21 games compared to the Orange and Blue's 31, which has them placed 12th.
Nashville have won ten and drawn one of their 11 home games in the MLS 2026 season, making them a fortress to be breached in front of their own fans. BJ Callaghan's men have been relentless in their high pressing approach, usually from a 4-2-2-2 base, and have shown a clinical ability to switch the game from defence to attack quickly when they win the ball back.
The only two players with more than ten goals in MLS 2026 this season are Sam Surridge of Nashville and Evander Ferreira of Cincinnati, with Sam Surridge their top scorer on 12 goals in 15 appearances. So they have a finisher to put the ball in the net, which is a major plus as Cincinnati can be tough to break down.
Cincinnati can be a threat on the counter
Pat Noonan has the Orange and Blue well-organized in a 3-5-2 system where they press selectively. They have been in good nick lately, drawing 1-1 with Seattle Sounders and a 2-1 home win over New York City FC.
Their away record is shaky with one win, five draws and four losses in ten games played on the road in the MLS 2026, so they will enter this as minnows. But they have scored 18 times in 10 away games, which tells us they can counter attack with pace.
Evander Ferreira leads the Cincinnati scoring charts with 13 goals in 20 MLS 2026 appearances and has four in his last five, so he is the man most likely to punish Nashville if they slip up. The hosts should win on form, home advantage and league position, but the oddsmakers have them at 73/100 for a reason and Cincinnati are very much the minnows at 3/1 with the draw at 31/10.
Backing under 2.5 goals at 8/5 looks like the sharper alternative angle here if Noonan's men can keep it tight, while a Nashville win still has to be our preferred outcome.
