- Toronto FC have won three, drawn six and lost two of their 11 home MLS 2026 games, averaging 2.00 goals scored and 2.00 goals conceded.
- New York City FC have won three, drawn two and lost four of their nine away MLS 2026 trips so far, averaging 1.22 goals conceded per game.
- The head-to-head record favours Cityzens, who have won four of the last five meetings and Toronto FC have failed to win either of their last two home games against NYCFC.
Toronto have a touch of form, NYCFC in a rut
Toronto FC are 23rd in the MLS 2026 table with 24 points from 21 games, so they have some work to do if they want to make the playoffs this season. New York City FC, with 26 points from 20, are just above The Reds in 18th place.
Toronto FC are in a bit of a mixed run, with a 2-1 win over New England, a 3-3 draw with Charlotte and a 2-1 away win at Inter Miami their results from the last three games. NYCFC are in a sticky patch, losing four straight, most recently 2-1 to Cincinnati away after a 2-3 home defeat to Philadelphia.
Reds have enough to edge Cityzens in Canada
There is a close game here and the odds reflect this with Toronto at 7/5, just a touch shorter than NYCFC at 41/25, while the draw is 53/20. The visitors are in a losing streak, while Toronto have at least stopped the rot at home, where they have gone unbeaten in two, winning one and drawing one.
Toronto FC are the only team that seem to have picked up a little form and they have a slight home advantage in Canada, so the correct score pick for Saturday's clash at the BMO Field is for the Reds to shade a tight game 2-1.
Both teams to score looks the obvious punt at 1/2, while the 31/50 over 2.5 goals line also fits the fixture, which should feature some chances at both ends if Toronto can break up the Cityzens press.
Key player impact may tip the scales
Toronto's 4-2-3-1 system is compact and pragmatic, with the ability to flip into a back three if they are caught out wide, which can happen when NYCFC press high. The Cityzens are a more expansive side, with plenty of rotation in the midfield and high pressing play, but they can be caught out if Toronto do break the first press.
Toronto have Daniel Salloi, who has five goals in 21 MLS 2026 appearances, as their most likely finisher, while New York City FC have Nicolas Fernandez, who has 13 goals in 19 appearances, to play off. Fernandez is the main difference between these teams and could be the catalyst for the Cityzens to at least claim a goal in Toronto.
