- Real Madrid have won one of the last two meetings between the sides in all competitions.
- Real Madrid have won 14, drawn one and lost two of their 17 home La Liga matches this season, averaging 2.41 goals per game.
- Real Madrid have scored 41 goals in 17 home La Liga matches this season.
Real Madrid’s form has been a little patchy of late with the club having won three and lost two of their last five in all competitions, although they have won their last two at home. Mallorca’s form has also been mixed with two wins, one draw and two defeats in their last five La Liga matches. However, they have been winless in their last two away games against Real Madrid in all competitions and the bookmakers have them as major underdogs at +950 with Los Blancos priced at -285 for the win. Four months ago, Carlo Ancelotti’s side thumped Mallorca 3-0 at the Bernabéu in the Super Cup 2024 and their superior home record and recent head-to-head record suggests they can repeat that performance on Wednesday.
Jagoba Arrasate’s side have been solid in their recent home games, grinding out a 2-1 win over Real Valladolid last weekend after losing 1-0 away to Girona the previous week. The new Mallorca boss has set up his team in a deep-lying, rigid 5-4-1 formation that has been soaking up pressure and then hitting teams on the counter with numbers. That approach could be effective against Real Madrid, who will try to control the ball and open up the game with their fluid 4-3-3 formation and superior technical quality. The league positions of both teams should add some extra intensity to the game with Real Madrid sitting second on 75 points from 35 games and Mallorca ninth on 47 points after the same number of matches.
Mallorca’s Vedat Muriqi is the main man up front for them, but with only seven goals in 26 appearances this season, he will need to be on form to cause problems for Madrid’s defence. Sergi Darder has scored two of Mallorca’s last four league goals, so he is the best bet to score any away goals on Wednesday. Real Madrid have the superior firepower and have a couple of players in fine form, none better than Kylian Mbappé. The Frenchman has scored 27 goals in 31 La Liga appearances this season and six of Real’s last ten, so he is the bookmakers’ top pick for first goalscorer at -161. Vinícius Júnior can also cause havoc on the wing, so the Madrid attack should have enough to break through Mallorca’s stubborn defence. Over 2.5 goals is favored at -169, but the home side’s attacking quality should be enough to see them to a comfortable win.
