- Recent form (Australia): Australia have won six of their last ten matches in all competitions, losing four.
- Recent form (Turkey): Turkey have won seven, drawn one, and lost only two of their last ten in all competitions.
- Home form (Australia): Australia have won their last three home matches, scoring an average of 2.33 goals per game and conceding only 0.33.
Turkey are the value play for Group D top spot
Turkey are a solid 1.8 to beat Australia in the early odds, which seems fairly short considering the Socceroos are a respectable 4.82 to win. While the Turks are favored to top the group, there are a few reasons why we think the value is on the visitors on Sunday.
For starters, they have been the more impressive side in recent times, unbeaten in their last five matches and on a three-match winning run, highlighted by a 4-0 home win over North Macedonia. They returned to the World Cup finals for the first time since 2002 and will be keen to make a mark on the global stage.
Familiar tactics
Turkey's approach
Vincenzo Montella has been at the helm of the Turkish team since September 2023 and has implemented a style which looks to press high and force turnovers in midfield.
- Montella's side are a young, dynamic and hungry team who press high and look to win the ball in the middle of the park, where they can exploit the space with their technical players in the 4-2-3-1 system.
- They will also look to utilise their full-backs, who frequently overlap, while the creative player behind the striker can pull defenders out of position and create opportunities for the wide men and full-backs.
Australia's system
That sets up a fascinating tactical battle against an Australian side that Tony Popovic has turned into a back three system that is very positive in terms of width with the wing-backs coming up. Australia are much more direct and aggressive than before, looking to make quick transitions from their compact double pivot.
Popovic took the reins in September 2024 and has turned Australia into a side that can beat anyone on their day, but just as easily lose to the likes of Mexico which they did 1-0 in their most recent matchup. That was away from home though where they have won their last two including a 5-1 thrashing of Curacao.
An even encounter expected
While Turkey are the favourites to take the points, Australia are a tough team at home and we think they could make this matchup competitive enough to see the win draw win odds increase in the Turks' favour.
For that reason, we're taking Both teams to score at 1.89, as Australia's recent games have tended to produce goals in the latter stages, particularly when Jordan Bos has been on the field with two goals in the last six.
This is a clash that has never taken place in a World Cup before and it is a spicy one with Turkey in good form and Australia in patchy form, hoping to take the momentum into the group stage in 2026.
