- Bologna F.C. have won 4 and lost 1 of their last 5 games, gaining a strong head of steam.
- AC Parma have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5 matches.
- Bologna F.C. have won 3 and lost 2 of their 5 Serie A 2026/2027 away fixtures.
Bologna have the momentum to edge Derby dell'Emilia
Bologna F.C. come into the Derby dell'Emilia with momentum and they are a narrow favourite to take all three points against an inconsistent AC Parma at 2.0. The home side are 3.65 and the draw is 3.35, but the stats and recent form suggest the Rossoblù will just about edge this contest.
Alberto Gilardino has moulded Parma into a more fluid 3-5-2/3-4-2-1 side than many of the rigid 3-4-3s that have been in vogue recently, playing with a higher line and trying to be quick and sharp on the snap. David Romero leads the scoring for Parma in Serie A 2026/2027 with two goals in four, but they have been blunt of late - their last three games have been a 0-3 home defeat to Torino, a 2-1 away defeat to Lazio and a 0-0 draw at home to Udinese.
Raffaele Palladino has set Bologna up with a back three, wing-backs, and a number ten behind the main striker. They are more structured in possession and with lots of movement and rotations in midfield, they have the width to stretch games - and keep Parma pinned back. Juan Miranda has four assists in his last five games for the Rossoblù, who have been more of a team for the second half of the campaign.
Expect a close game with the visitors’ favouritism about right
Bologna are eighth in the table on 14 points from ten games, so they have positioned themselves well to make a push for a top-half finish in Serie A 2026/2027. Parma are struggling in 18th with only five points from nine, so they are still in the battle to get out of the relegation zone.
Parma have had mixed recent form. Bologna have won three and lost two of their five away games this season, so they have an away profile that should allow them to get the job done in this derby.
Backing Bologna to edge it, or the draw, is where our money is going in the head-to-head markets as Bologna have won two of the last three meetings and Parma won the other. Samuel Mbangula has three goals in his last five appearances for Bologna and he will arrive in Parma with good end-product.
Under 2.5 goals at 1.7 looks like a decent fit
Bologna average 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded away from home in Serie A 2026/2027, which seems a decent ratio to us. Parma have conceded six times in five home games in Serie A 2026/2027, so they should be breached at some stage.
Parma have averaged 1.5 goals at home against Bologna in the last 5 head-to-head meetings, while the visitors have also averaged 1.5 goals as away side in this fixture over the same period. So, this derby should be close and tense, which is why under 2.5 goals at 1.7 is our top selection.
Both teams to score is very finely poised at 1.87 and that just reflects how finely poised the teams are in this clash. Parma will have the motivation to make a mark in the Derby dell'Emilia and their 1-0 away win over Bologna in Serie A 2025/2026 demonstrates they can still do the business against their local rivals.
