- Parma form: Parma have won one, tied one and lost three of their last five matches in Serie A 2026/2027.
- Bologna form: Bologna have won four and lost one of their last five Serie A 2026/2027 fixtures, coming into this derby in good form.
- Parma defence: Parma have conceded six goals in five home fixtures in Serie A 2026/2027, so should be breached.
Two sides on a mission
The Derby dell'Emilia pits two sides in very different positions in the standings against one another on Saturday, with AC Parma 18th with five points from nine games and Bologna F.C. 8th with 14 points from ten. Both sides have a lot of work to do if they're going to accomplish their respective targets for the 2026/2027 campaign, but both have the necessary tools to do so.
Alberto Gilardino has transformed I Crociati into a much more fluid 3-5-2/3-4-2-1 system over the course of the last few weeks and his men have been playing some impressive soccer with quick vertical snaps following the regain of possession. However, their recent results have been mixed, losing 3-0 at home to Torino, 2-1 away to Lazio and 0-0 at home to Udinese, so the attack has been rather blunt.
David Romero has two goals in four games, making him Parma's top scorer in Serie A 2026/2027 and their sharpest outlet in the final third. Artem Dovbyk leads Bologna's scoring with one goal in three matches, so Bologna will arrive in Parma with a focal point at the top of their formation. Juan Miranda has four assists in Bologna's last five, so Palladino's men should have a dangerous spark from wide areas.
Bologna should have the edge
Away form and tactics
Bologna have won three and lost two of their away fixtures in Serie A 2026/2027, giving them a pretty good profile for the trip to the Ennio Tardini. Raffaele Palladino's side are built around a back three and wing-backs, they like to have the ball and play a patient possession game, they rotate their midfielders well and they press in an organised manner high up the pitch.
Odds and selection
I Rossoblù are the narrow favorites for this game at 2.0, but Parma are 3.65 and the tie is at 3.35, so there's a little bit of value in going against the grain and taking the home side at such a big price. However, our main selection has to be the away side as they are in much better form and a Bologna win or draw double chance looks the way to go.
Derby day makes it interesting
Under 2.5 goals at 1.7 is a good fit for the tactical shape of this derby and both teams to score is finely poised either way at 1.87.
The away side look the likelier of the two to edge this contest but Parma's home resistance and derby history mean we're going to play it close to the vest and take the draw as the second option in the double chance selection.
- Parma have averaged 1.5 goals per game at home against Bologna across their 5 head-to-head meetings, while the visitors have also scored an average of 1.5 per away game, so there's a nice balance in this fixture.
- Parma have won once and Bologna have won twice in the last three H2H meetings, so this fixture has been tipping towards the Rossoblù slightly.
- Samuel Mbangula has three goals in Bologna's last five so he should arrive in Parma with some confidence to finish the job on Saturday.
