- Real Madrid are the more in-form of the two sides, winning 4 and losing 1 of their last 5 matches.
- Atletico Madrid are coming off a 2-game losing streak, losing 3-0 to Athletic Bilbao in LaLiga and 2-1 to Liverpool in the Champions League.
Madrid derby a microcosm of the Spanish top two
Los Colchoneros and Los Blancos meet in El Derbi madrileño on Sunday, with local bragging rights and a bit of LaLiga momentum at stake.
Real Madrid are the more in-form side, having won their last 2 games - a 2-1 victory over Internazionale Milano in the UEFA Champions League and a 4-1 success against Rayo Vallecano in the league.
Atletico, on the other hand, arrive at Riyadh Air Metropolitano after suffering successive defeats - a 3-0 away loss to Athletic Bilbao in the LaLiga season and a 2-1 defeat to Liverpool in the UEFA Champions League.
Mourinho has made Real harder to break
These two clubs are very well matched for each other and have similar styles of play, so the head-to-head record is often the best indicator of how they will fare when these two teams meet.
Real Madrid have won 4 of the last 5 Madrid derbies, but Atletico did win the other meeting, so we have to consider the home side's prospects in this fixture.
Real do look like the more likely winner because of their superior form and the fact that Atletico are coming off two poor performances.
However, the derby profile suggests it won't be a walkover and the 1.97 quote on Los Blancos is a bit on the short side when compared to Atletico at 3.3 and the draw at 3.9.
Mbappe has the edge as both teams’ top scorer
Five months on from their 3-2 home win in LaLiga 2025/2026, Mourinho's men are beginning to look like a team that can maintain its status as Spain's dominant force.
The Special One took charge of Real in July 2026 and has already stamped his mark on a side that are tougher to break down than they were before, but still capable of punching forward.
The spacing and structure that the Portuguese coach demands looks similar to the compact 4-4-2 that Oscar Fernandez has played since taking charge of Atletico in July 2021.
Alejandro Baena is the top scorer in the Atletico ranks, with 3 LaLiga goals in 4 games so far, but Real have Kylian Mbappe, who is top-scoring for his club with 6 LaLiga strikes in 5 games and 5 of Madrid's 12 goals in their last 5 fixtures.
Both teams to score is a strong play
Given that both sides have similar identities, the derby nature of this game and the odds that we're getting for Real Madrid, we're going to take the alternative angle here - both teams to score - at 1.45.
Atletico Madrid's selectiveness in pressing, compact shape and pace in wide areas can make for some good transitions, so we think both sides can register in what may be a cagey chess match. Real Madrid's greater transition threat makes them the more likely victor, however.
