- Athletic Bilbao are 8th in LaLiga 2026/2027 with seven points from five matches, whereas Deportivo Alaves are 2nd with ten points from the same number of fixtures.
- Deportivo Alaves have won three, drawn one and lost one of their last five matches, but their away form is a concern.
- Los Leones have won two of the last three home games against Alaves, who have taken one draw and one loss from two away matches in LaLiga 2026/2027.
Back Los Leones to edge out Alaves in a derby
Athletic Bilbao should edge out Deportivo Alaves in what will be a tight and tense Basque derby on Saturday afternoon at San Mames. Edin Terzic's side are in the midst of a transition to a faster, more vertical style of play since his appointment as Athletic's manager on 1 July 2026.
So far, so good. Los Leones have just come off back-to-back wins in which they produced a sharp 0-2 victory away to Celta Vigo and an authoritative 3-0 home win over Atletico Madrid. They then fell to a 1-1 draw against Elche, but they're still in the top half after five games and are clear favourites at 1.81 to win this Saturday's Basque derby against their neighbours.
Alaves are a solid 5.15 to get a result, but there are several reasons why you should favour the hosts in this fixture.
Terzic’s team have a winning head-to-head record against Alaves
Los Leones have won three of the last five games between the clubs, including a 4-2 away win in last season's LaLiga 2025/2026 fixture. Athletic have also won two of the last three meetings between the sides at San Mames, so there's a home edge for the favourites to take here that backs up the odds that have been set.
Quique Sanchez Flores has had a remarkable impact since taking over Alaves from 3 March 2026, turning them into a compact, risk-averse unit that have a five-man base in which they can block the middle, play wide and allow Angel Perez to feed the attack. The numbers back up their positive results as Babazorros have scored 10 goals in their last five matches.
Lucas Boye is their most dangerous player, having netted four goals in four LaLiga 2026/2027 matches - six of the 10 goals Alaves have scored in their last five. But Athletic have a live wire of their own in Robert Navarro, who has scored two goals in three matches this season and three in his last five for the club.
Los Leones will try to get on top of this match
Navarro's arrival in the box is a big problem for any opposition and his pace will really hurt Alaves if this game does open up. But Alaves have looked ruthless in attack at home against Villarreal (4-0) and Osasuna (2-0) and their 2-1 away defeat to Racing Santander shows the road can still bite them if they aren't as patient.
Athletic have won one, drawn one and lost one of their three home LaLiga 2026/2027 games so far, scoring 1.67 and conceding 1.33 per game. Backing the home side to just edge out an stubborn Alaves team is the way to go, so Athletic or draw looks a solid alternative to the win market that still offers good value at 1.81.
