- Team form: HNK Rijeka have won 3 of their last 5 games, including the last 3.
- Opposition form: Ilves Tampere have won 4 of their last 5, including the last 2.
- Home/away: Rijeka have won 3 of their 5 home games this season (D1, L1), Ilves have won just 1 of their 6 away (D1, L4).
Ilves have enough fight to keep it tight in Croatia
Odds and stakes
The bookmakers have this one right when they make HNK Rijeka the 1.55 favorites to beat Ilves Tampere in the UEFA Conference League qualification 2026 in Croatia this Thursday. The Finns, at 5.8, are a touch high, while the draw at 3.9 also has some appeal in what is likely to be a tense affair. There is real value in this tie, with the winner one step closer to the seeded play-off route in next year's competition.
Rijeka's approach
Rijeka are in better form with three wins from their last five, but Ilves are on a two-game winning streak and have enough about them to make life tricky for the hosts at Stadion Rujevica. Matjaz Kek's men are well-organized and aggressive, with a back-four shape and a real emphasis on winning the ball high up the pitch. They are a vertical side with plenty of tempo and should trouble Ilves, who will look to punish any overcommitment on the break.
Ilves' identity
But Camilo Sperenza has given the Finnish club a real identity since taking charge on 6 July 2026. His side are compact and have a fight-first mentality that makes them a tough nut to crack. They are solid, but not suffocating out of possession, preferring a low block and balls in behind rather than trying to hold the ball for long spells.
Goals could be at a premium
Rijeka have scored only six goals in their last five at home across all competitions and while they have the sharpness of Amer Gojak to hurt Ilves – he has two of the team's four goals in the team's last 5-match run – they are not an explosive side.
Ilves are averaging 1.33 goals per game scored and 1.67 conceded in their six away games in all competitions, so they are a bit loose to be trusted against the better sides in their league and could suffer when Rijeka get on top.
Backing the home side to take the win looks the right play here with both teams in good form, although it could be a low-scoring one. Rijeka are 5-3-2 in their last 10 across all competitions while Ilves are 4-2-4, so take the Under 2.5 goals at 1.85 and BTTS-No at 1.78 to edge the market on this match.
- Daniel Adu-Adjei has been Rijeka's main goal threat in Europe so far with one goal in two games in this competition, while Jardell Kanga has been Ilves' spark since joining in the summer.
- He has one goal in four games in UEFA Conference League Qualification 2026 and three assists in the club's last five, so he looks the best bet to create something special if they need it.
