- HNK Rijeka have 1 win, 2 draws and 1 defeat from their last 4 away matches in all competitions (avg. 1.25 goals scored and 0.75 goals conceded).
- Derry City have won 2 and lost 2 of their last 4 home matches in all competitions (avg. 2.00 goals scored and 1.50 goals conceded).
- HNK Rijeka have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat from their last 5 matches, while Derry City have 1 win and 4 defeats from their last 5.
Rijeka should make the pace in cagey affair
A cagey fixture with very little goal-mouth action is expected in Thursday's UEFA Conference League Qualification 2026 second leg between Derry City and HNK Rijeka at Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium. HNK have the better of the form book for this fixture on paper, with odds of 1.64, while Derry are priced up at 5.1 and the draw at 4.1.
The Croatian club have won their last two matches on the spin after beating NK Gorica 2-0 at home, before seeing off the Candystripes 1-0 in the reverse fixture of this tie. Derry responded well to that defeat by returning to winning ways against Tolka Rovers AFC in the FAI Cup 2026, but they are still smarting from the 1-0 loss to Rijeka.
Rijeka set up in a 4-2-3-1/4-3-3 hybrid under Matjaz Kek and like to use the ball to good effect, but they are patient and can control games if needed. The visitors will look to overload the wings and play through the middle when they have the ball and will undoubtedly test Derry's discipline from the first whistle to the final one.
Derry are a compact and pragmatic side under Tiernan Lynch and will sit narrow and deep here, looking to catch Rijeka on the counter with a few snappy attacks. Michael Duffy has been playing some good balls in behind lately and has 3 assists in Derry's last 5 goals, but the hosts need Ellis Chapman to spark their attacks, as the forward has three of their eight goals in their last 5.
Under 2.5 goals is the pick
Toni Fruk is Rijeka's danger man with one goal in UEFA Conference League Qualification 2026 and two of their goals across their last six, but it is hard to see either team going to town on Thursday as this is a classic possession-versus-block fixture.
Our match prediction is for Rijeka to grab the narrow 1-0 win, but the odds for the tie to remain tight and cagey are more attractive elsewhere. Under 2.5 goals is our main selection at 1.9, while we are also squeezing a small play on BTTS-Yes at 1.88 in the match result market.
