- HNK Rijeka have won three, drawn one and lost one of their last five in all competitions (HNL 2025/2026), including a 0-0 draw away to NK Istra 1961 Pula and a 2-0 win at home to NK Gorica.
- Derry City have won one, drawn one and lost three of their last five in all competitions, a run that includes a 2-4 home defeat to Waterford FC in the Irish Premier Division 2026.
- HNK Rijeka can play with a 4-3-3, 4-2-3-1 or 4-1-4-1 structure, making them hard to pin down.
Rijeka are the clear favourites at 1.27
HNK Rijeka are the heavy favourites to beat Derry City in their home match-up in Croatia on Thursday, but the 8.9 price on Derry and 6.8 on the draw are both too big considering the respective form of the teams. The smart money is on the home side in this one as Rijeka are expected to dominate the action at Stadion Rujevica.
The Croatians are hardly perfect, having won four, drawn three and lost three of their last 10 in all competitions, but they seem to have a settled structure in place with a high-pressing 4-3-3 that boss Matjaz Kek has made his own. Rijeka can morph into more compact 4-2-3-1 or 4-1-4-1 shapes when required, which makes them difficult to pin down and means they have a few different ways to trouble the visitors on Thursday.
Derry City have a similar 4-3-3 structure, but it hasn't always held together when Tiernan Lynch's men have been under pressure, as evidenced by their back-to-back defeats to PFC CSKA Sofia in UEFA Europa League Qualification 2026. Derry's best path to creating a goal is usually a direct route down the wing, but they could be chasing shadows for long spells if Rijeka set the tempo, as they usually do.
Candies can spring Duffy on the break
Michael Duffy is Derry's creative spark and he has delivered four assists in their last five across all competitions, but Daniel Adu-Adjei is the danger man to watch here with three of Rijeka's eight goals coming from his boot in the last five.
Rijeka will be keen to get out in front early and press high as their superior fitness and freshness allows them to be much more proactive than their opponents. Derry's away record in all competitions is one draw and two defeats, so they have yet to notch their first win on the road, which is a serious concern ahead of Thursday's game.
Lynch's team can hurt their opponents on the counter attack, but they haven't looked as consistent or reliable when pressed in recent matches. A Rijeka win to nil fits the script well as Derry have already conceded six goals in three away games across all competitions, which doesn't bode well for a visit to a home that averages 1.17 goals scored and just 0.67 conceded across all comps.
The stakes are high for both clubs in this Conference League qualifier, and whichever team gets through will get a huge boost in terms of revenue and momentum. For our money, Rijeka are in better shape to make it through with a win and the new tactical project that Kek has started in Croatia will be validated if they can see off the Candies.
