- Cristian Chivu's Inter have won two, lost two and drawn one of the last five clashes with la Viola.
- Internazionale Milano have won all four home games in Serie A 2026/2027, averaging 3.75 goals per game scored and 1.50 goals per game conceded.
- Fiorentina have won one and lost two of their three Serie A 2026/2027 away games, averaging 1.67 goals scored per trip.
Nerazzurri have the edge in an even head-to-head
Inter are 1.34 favourites for this Serie A 2026/2027 clash with Fiorentina at the Giuseppe Meazza, where the Nerazzurri have been perfect this season - with an average of 3.75 goals scored per match and a average of 1.50 conceded per match.
Cristian Chivu's team come into this one after their 3-0 home win over AC Parma and 1-3 away success at Bologna, although they did come unstuck in a 3-4 Champions League home defeat to Club Brugge in between those games.
Fiorentina are in indifferent form and have now suffered consecutive defeats in the league with a 2-1 loss away to Genoa and a 1-3 loss at home to Como.
The Viola are 8.4 to win on Sunday and the 4.9 draw doesn't appeal as much as the hosts are top of the league table with 19 points from seven games and la Viola are bottom with four.
San Siro should suit hosts best
These two sides have played out five very tight games in the last few years, with Inter and Fiorentina having won two apiece and one draw. The Viola have not won in their last two visits to play Inter and there is enough here to suggest this will be another tough matchup.
Chivu's 3-5-2 is very quick, particularly when Inter are in possession and they press opponents very high up the pitch. Paolo Vanoli's Fiorentina are flexible, playing in a 4-2-3-1 or 4-1-4-1, and try to control the game from the midfield with the wide players rotating into the middle.
This will test Inter's ability to stay compact while pressing in the wide areas and it should give Fiorentina opportunities if they can get beyond the first press.
Inter have the superior squad and should win this game in their own home, but the fact that Fiorentina are a bit of a bogey team in the head-to-head means this will be closer than the table suggests.
Alternative bet has some appeal
With that in mind, we're taking a smaller stakes bet on the hosts to win and both teams not to score, which looks a better price than the direct result markets and takes into account Inter's home superiority and Fiorentina's slippery run.
Lautaro Martinez is Inter's main threat, scoring four Serie A 2026/2027 goals in as many games and scoring four of Inter's 11 goals across their last five matches. Franco Mastantuono is top scorer for la Viola with three goals in five Serie A 2026/2027 games and has scored three of his side's eight goals across their last five games in all competitions.
