- Chicago Fire have won 3 of their last 5 matches.
- New York City FC have won 2 of their last 5, drawing 1 and losing 2.
H2H trends, form and goals trends suggest a Chicago win
Chicago Fire are the slight favourites at 2.62 to beat a New York City FC side that come into the contest at 2.4 ahead of the draw at 3.7, which we are staying away from here.
This fixture has been dominated by NYCFC in recent years with the home side winning 3 of the last 5 head-to-head meetings (W3, D2, L0) and they also won 3-1 away from home when these sides met a 10 months ago.
Chicago Fire have failed to win on either of their previous 2 away trips to face the home team, so they are clearly not comfortable in New York, but the form book and league table suggest the visitors have the edge here.
Chicago Fire have won 3 of their last 5 and are on a 3-game winning streak, while New York City FC have won 2 of their last 5, but have lost their previous 2 (L2).
The visitors look to have better momentum than their home team ahead of Saturday's game at Yankee Stadium.
New York City FC can make life difficult at Citi Field
Chicago Fire's most recent results have been an excellent 2-0 away win at CF Montreal and a 2-1 home victory against Toronto FC, but New York City FC come into this game off the back of a 1-0 away defeat to Columbus Crew in the USA US Open Cup 2026 and a 2-1 away loss to Nashville SC in MLS 2026.
Pascal Jansen has NYCFC pressing aggressively and looking to play at a high tempo, so they will be looking to create errors, win the ball back as quickly as possible and hurt Chicago on the counterattack.
In contrast, Gregg Berhalter has Chicago Fire operating with possession in a much more structured way and their playing style can be more patient and calculated, looking to control the flow of the game and probe for weaknesses.
These are two very different approaches to the game and we have seen a similar situation with the press-versus-possession style of play in many contests in European football this season.
Sides to play their part and Chicago to come out on top
Chicago Fire currently sit 6th with 26 points from 14 matches in MLS 2026, while New York City FC are in 17th with 19 points from 15 games.
So, there is a bit of a chasm between these two teams in terms of the table, yet New York City FC's home record of 3 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats in 8 games is mixed, so the Fortress City vibe is not strong.
New York City FC have won their most recent home game, however, so they can make this contest tricky for Chicago Fire.
Chicago Fire have won 3, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their 6 away games in MLS 2026, so they can travel well and we think the match result market is set up for a Chicago success.
The overall form, the head-to-head and New York City FC's prowess on home turf points more towards a close contest than a runaway for the away side, so we are taking both teams to score and a few goals here.
Both Teams to Score - Yes at 1.5 is the main selection and Over 2.5 goals at 1.62 is a good insurance play in case this game gets away from Chicago Fire.
New York City FC have a key goalscorer, with Nicolas Fernandez having 10 to his name in 15 appearances, and Hannes Wolf has been in top form recently, netting 3 of NYCFC's 6 goals in their past 5 games.
Chicago Fire have the most lethal player in MLS 2026 overall, however, with Belgian striker Hugo Cuypers having 13 goals in 11 appearances, who has also scored 3 of Chicago Fire's last 9 goals, while the Dane Philip Zinckernagel has also supplied 3 assists in the last 5 - his extra spark in the middle should see Chicago take the points on Saturday.
