- San Jose have won one, drawn one and lost three of their last five matches.
- St. Louis have won four and drawn one of their last five.
High-press St. Louis can get a result in San Jose
San Jose Earthquakes are fifth in MLS 2026 with 33 points from 18 games while Saint Louis City SC sit 13th with 26 from 18 after 18 games of the new season.
Bruce Arena's team have won four, drawn two and lost three of their nine home matches in 2026, scoring 1.89 goals per game and conceding 1.22 at PayPal Park. St. Louis have won twice, drawn three and lost four on their road trips, scoring 0.89 per away game and allowing 1.56.
St. Louis have lost none of their last five games and should arrive in San Jose with confidence. Earthquakes, on the other hand, have been inconsistent with one win, one draw and three defeats in their last five outings. Their two most recent games ended 1-1 against LA Galaxy and 4-2 away to FC Cincinnati.
Spoiler alert
The odds, which have San Jose as the 1.97 favorites, St. Louis 3.25 and the draw 3.95, don't reflect the fact that the visitors are in better form and will fancy their chances of securing something from this clash at PayPal Park.
San Jose are a solid team that play with a structure-first mindset, but they are a pragmatic side that can be positive when the occasion demands. Judd is their biggest threat and they are set up to play on the counter-attack, which can be a problem for teams who press them.
St. Louis's Yoann Damet sets his team up to press and counter-press at pace with a high-energy, ball-focused game. They get plenty from Hartel, whose movement and end product allow them to press hard and still have plenty in reserve to turn pressure into goals.
This contrast should make for a thrilling matchup, San Jose's structured transitions against St. Louis's press-and-pounce style. Both teams to score at 1.45 is a good play here given the end-to-end nature of the matchup and over 2.5 goals at 1.5 also fits the open, high-tempo script.
San Jose have failed to win their last two home matches against St. Louis, who will arrive here with some confidence and should be able to nick something if they can apply pressure early on in this clash, but the most likely result is for the top-five team to squeeze out a win.
